The Campaign Spot

Reading a Bit Too Much Into These Campaign Finance Numbers

Over in the Politico, in an article leadlined, “Money Figures Trouble For McCain, GOP” Jeanne Cummings writes:

In addition to the front-runner blues, the first-quarter reports reflect high energy among Democratic activists and a slump among Republicans. Even without Obama’s total, the Democratic candidates combined raised $65 million in the first three months of this year compared with $50 million by the major Republicans. In addition to McCain and Romney, Republican poll-front-runner Rudy Giuliani announced that he’d raised $15 million, $10 million of which came in during March.

Okay, wait a second…
Hillary: $26 million. Edwards: $14 million. That totals $40 million.  

Is she counting the $4 million raised by Chris Dodd? The guy has his home state national insurance industry dumping money in, along with the real-estate industrial complex waiting on his every word about a bailout for overstretched homeowners. He’s chair of the Senate Banking Committee.

 

But I don’t think anyone’s counting Dodd as a “major” presidential candidate with a serious shot at the nomination.

 

Is she counting Bill Richardson? Yes, $6 million is an impressive sum, but again, the guy’s a sitting governor. He’s not a serious contender until he hits double digits in a poll.

 

Biden? Same boat. He’s been around the Senate forever, he chairs the Foreign Relations Committee, he represents the corporate-heavy state of Delaware; he could raise $3 million in his sleep. But I don’t think many people are preparing for a Biden Administration come January 2009.

 

If you put together Hillary, Edwards, Richardson, Biden and Dodd, you still only get $53 million. Where is the $65 million figure coming from? Is it the $10 million left over from Hillary’s Senate campaign, plus the hundreds of thousands here and there I’ve rounded down from?

 

And as for the Republicans only raising $50 million – the lesser-known candidates aren’t raking it in, the Brownbacks ($2 million) and Huckabees (a half million). At the end of the day, the amount of money raised the the candidates in fourth place, fifth place, sixth place, etc., doesn’t really matter that much (unless they’re on the verge of an amazing, unexpected surge to the nomination). At this point, all we’ve learned is that the Republican donor base is more skeptical of their longshot candidates.

 

And Fred Thompson isn’t even in yet; you figure he would have an easy time raking in money, changing everything…

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