If you’re looking for affirmation that the New England College poll showing Scott Brown ahead of Senator Jeanne Shaheen by one point is accurately showing the winner, here’s one nugget to make you feel good . . .
The final New England College poll of 2012 in the presidential race in New Hampshire had President Obama with 50, Romney 46 percent. The final results were Obama 52 percent, Romney 46 percent. Ironically, every other pollster’s final survey in the state showed Obama with a lead of 3 points or less.
On the other hand, if you subscribe to the theory that the “who do you think will win?” question is a better indicator of the likely winner, the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, found 55 percent of likely voters think Shaheen will be re-elected, only 30 percent think Brown will win, and 15 percent are unsure. The polls “final prediction for the NH Senate race is 49% for Shaheen and 48% for Brown.”
At this point, the only really surprising result would be one candidate winning by a significant margin.