The Campaign Spot

Romney Up One Nationally in a D+6 CBS/New York Times Sample

The Thursday Morning Jolt features a look at President Obama’s busy schedule, our new economically dominant neighbors to the north, and a long discussion of the politics in the last Batman film. And then his polling news:

A CBS News/New York Times Poll That Will Have Axelrod Kicking the Cat

This could be an outlier . . . but boy, if it isn’t, this suggests that the entire conventional wisdom, that Obama’s attacks on Romney over Bain were smart and effective, is completely wrong.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency, according to a new CBS News/New York Times survey.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters nationwide who lean towards a candidate back Romney, while 46 percent support the president. Four percent are undecided. The one percentage point difference is within the survey’s three point margin of error.

Roughly half of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic compared to past elections — up from 36 percent in March — while just 27 percent of Democrats say the same.

Fifty-four percent of registered voters cite the economy and jobs as “extremely” important in their presidential vote, more than any other issue. Here Romney has the edge: 49 percent of registered voters say he would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, while 41 percent cite Mr. Obama.

Romney is also seen as better on the federal budget deficit (50 percent to 36 percent), taxes (47 percent to 42 percent) and illegal immigration (46 percent to 38 percent). Mr. Obama as seen as better on foreign policy (47 percent to 40 percent) and social issues (48 percent to 37 percent). Views of the candidates on health care and terrorism were split.

Boy, that OBL kill did wonders for the president, huh?

Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating stands at 44 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. His approval rating on the economy is just 39 percent — 55 percent disapprove — and his approval rating on foreign policy is 41 percent. His approval rating on the economy has dropped five points since April.

Both candidates have net unfavorable ratings. Forty-eight percent of registered voters view the president unfavorably, while 36 percent view him favorably. Romney is viewed unfavorably by 36 percent and favorably by 32 percent. Nearly one in three say they do not yet have an opinion about the presumptive Republican nominee.

Seven in ten Americans say the economy is in bad shape. While 24 percent say it is getting better — down from 33 percent in April — 30 percent say it is getting worse. That marks the highest percentage who say the economy is getting worse since December.

Now here’s the wild part: Romney’s up a point in a polling sample heavily (but not comically heavily) weighted to Democrats; the sample for registered voters splits 26.5 percent Republican, 32.6 percent Democrat, 40.8% Independent. That’s as not awful as some other samples, but that assumes the Democrats’ advantage is only slightly worse than on Election Day 2008.


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