An attorney from Alabama who reads the Campaign Spot writes in on the significance of Martha Roby running for Congress in that state’s 2nd District:
She is a born politician, has great instincts, is smart, attractive and has a good chance of defeating Bobby Bright (although it won’t be easy). She can raise a lot of money and is well-known and liked in Montgomery where she is a city council member from a mixed-race district. She overwhelmingly was re-elected last time pulling majorities among both white and black voters in her district—not an easy task in Alabama.
[Incumbent Democrat Bobby] Bright runs as a Blue-Dog Dem. conservative and has a done a fairly good job of distancing himself from Obama and San Fran Nan—not popular figures among the majority of voters in middle Alabama. As I recall, he voted against the stimulus bills. But, Bright probably would not have defeated his GOP adversary (by only 1,800 votes) last fall if Obama had not been on the ticket to inflate minority voter turnout. A minority gubernatorial candidate (Cong. Artur Davis) could do the same thing, to a degree, but I doubt he will have the draw of Obama.
Roby can probably win in central Alabama (Montgomery, Elmore, Autauga Counties) but may have to struggle to win votes in the Southwest part of the district (the “wiregrass”) where Bright is originally from.