I receive press releases from Paddy Power, “Ireland’s largest bookmaker and a leading provider of gaming services in the UK, Australia and Ireland.” Most of the releases reflect predictable shifts in odds, but today’s release indicates how suddenly and dramatically the Republican primary changed in South Carolina: “While Romney remains the favourite for the Republican nomination, his odds have taken a significant slide from 1/14 to 2/5, while Gingrich’s odds have been chopped from 6/1 before the South Carolina Primary to 2/1.”
(The legality of betting on elections is a bit vague. Chicago-based Nadex filed a request with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to list contracts on the victor of the 2012 presidential race and the majority parties in the House and Senate.)
You can also bet on which cliché Obama will use first in Tuesday’s State of the Union Address:
Cliché Betting: What Will Obama say first
8/1 We have more work to do
10/1 Health Care reform
10/1 As I stand here today
12/1 Fundamental belief
12/1 God Bless America
12/1 Crossroads of history
12/1 Defining moment
12/1 Make Washington work
14/1 Common purpose
16/1 Pursuit of happiness
16/1 Building a better America
16/1 Reduce the deficit
18/1 War on terror
18/1 It won’t be easy
18/1 Hungry for change
18/1 My civil liberties
20/1 Honour for me
20/1 I have a dream
20/1 Willing to listen to each other
20/1 Yes, we can
20/1 Don’t get me wrong
25/1 Hard to believe
25/1 I’m fired up
25/1 Withdraw our troops
25/1 There are better days ahead
25/1 Do Nothing Congress
25/1 We’ll have to make hard choices
25/1 We can be one people
25/1 A new direction
33/1 For far too long
33/1 Safe from harm
33/1 Jobs to the jobless
33/1 Reshapes our economy
40/1 Deepest gratitude
40/1 Greatness of our nation
40/1 Possibilities of this nation
40/1 Florida Primary
50/1 Believe in what this country can be
50/1 Unity is the great need of the hour
50/1 In the face of despair, you believe there can be hope
50/1 We can work together to keep our country safe
50/1 Abiding faith
66/1 Brighter day will come
66/1 Publish tax returns
66/1 Washington has a long way to go
80/1 Overcome the adversity
80/1 Bloated federal government
100/1 Diversity of my heritage
100/1 Yes, we might
250/1 Life is like a box of chocolates
“Don’t get me wrong”? Well, his critics would probably say he’s less of a doer than a Pretender . . .