A wise reader notes that despite my initial sense that there’s no clear Wright or “Cracker-quiddick” fallout in the polls, Obama may be on course for a rough primary night come April 22.
Take a look at the percentage for Obama in the last seven polls before the Ohio Democratic primary: 45, 42, 44, 42, 40, 44, 44. This would suggest he had a ceiling of support in the low 40s. On primary day, Obama finished with 44.1 percent.
By contrast, Hillary’s percentages in those final seven polls were 49, 51, 54, 51, 52, 50, 44. She finished with 54.2 percent, on the high end of her range.
Now take a look at Obama’s percentages in the last seven polls in Pennsylvania: 42, 44, 40, 41, 40, 41, 45. Once again, in this demographically similar state, it’s not unthinkable that Obama could have a similar ceiling in the low 40s.
Hillary’s percentages, by contrast, in those last seven polls were 49, 50, 49, 46, 54, 50, 42.
If Obama has an Ohio-esque ceiling in the low 40s in Pennsylvania, his best-case scenario is to lose by about ten points. A repeat of the Buckeye state will easily meet Hillary’s needs.