A bit earlier tonight, a skeptical reader wrote in:
As of Friday night, as we go into the last weekend of the campaign, not one national poll shows movement toward McCain. Most show movement toward Obama. How do you expect anyone to believe your optimistic spins? Your so-called garu [sic] who is reporting tomorrow better be up to the task, for he has an enormous challenge to present a credible case for McCain making this race even competitive on Tuesday. By the way, the distinction you threw out there between polling numbers and intentions is as preposterous as the validity you gave to the Nick at Night children’s poll. What’s happening is the opposite of the wishful thinking and party line spin: independents and undecide voters are moving strongly in Obama’s direction.
And then, as if to smite him, the Gods of Polling answered, and my guru – I prefer the term “mentor” — called to make sure I saw on Drudge:
ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...
Now, we will see if this is a one-day blip, or whether it is a trend, or an indication that the independents are indeed breaking to McCain. I had been speculating for a short while that those answering “undecided” were mostly “I don’t like Obama, and will vote for the cranky old guy, but don’t want to tell anyone.”