A guy who knows a thing or two about winning Republican primaries told me today to ignore the national polls in the Republican primary and look at who’s actually leading in the early primary states.
Let’s assume that whoever’s won the most contests before the February 5 Super Duper Tuesday has the momentum going into that 13 to 20 state megafight, and that whoever wins that day has the nomination.
The actual order of primaries, with aggregated results from RealClearPolitics and Pollster.com:
January 14 Iowa caucuses:
ARG: McCain 25, Rudy 23, Romney 16, Thompson 6.
Strategic Vision: Romney 20, Rudy 18, McCain 16, Thompson 10.
Research 2000: McCain 18, Rudy 17, Romney 16, Thompson 9.
Des Moines Register: Romney 30, McCain 18, Giuliani 18, Thompson 9.
Looking very tight; any one of the Big Three Could win. I’d be surprised if Fred Thompson didn’t start building something here.
19 Nevada caucuses – only two polls since March:
Mason-Dixon: McCain 19, Romney 15, Thompson 13, Rudy 12.
Zogby (who I’m usually hesitant to rely on): Rudy 37, McCain 15, Romney 15, Thompson 7.
McCain? Rudy? I generally trust Mason Dixon, but they show a seven point gap between first place and fourth place. So really, it’s anybody’s race right now.
22 New Hampshire, Wyoming caucus (GOP):
CNN/WMUR/UNH: Romney 28, Rudy 20, McCain 20, Thompson 11.
Mason Dixon: Romney 27, McCain 16, Rudy 15, Thompson 12.
Franklin Pierce: Romney 27, Rudy 18, McCain 17, Thompson 9.
ARG: McCain 30, Romney 23, Rudy 21, Thompson 3.
Romney looks good. McCain is hanging in there. Rudy is performing a solid third. Have to see if Fred appeals here.
No one has polled Wyoming.
Here’s a surprise: As the calendar stands, Florida comes before South Carolina!
29 Florida:
Zogby: Rudy 31, McCain 12, Romney 12, Thompson 10
Quinnipiac: Rudy 31, Thompson 14, McCain 10, Romney 8
Datamar: Rudy 27, Thompson 22, Romney 18, McCain 12
Strategic Vision: Rudy 32, McCain 20, Thompson 10, Romney 5
Wow. Rudy’s bulwark. I’d be a little worried if I were McCain.
February 2 Maine caucus (GOP), South Carolina (GOP):
Mason Dixon: Thompson 25, Rudy 21, Romney 11, McCain 7
PPP, a Democratic firm: Thompson 27, Romney 16, McCain 15, Rudy 14
Winthrop: Rudy 19, McCain 14, Romney 12, Thompson 6.
ARG: McCain 32, Rudy 23, Thompson 13, Romney 10.
No one has polled Maine yet.
So you’ve got Iowa (anybody, maybe McCain?), Nevada (anybody, maybe McCain?), New Hampshire (Romney, probably?), Florida (Rudy, probably?) and South Carolina (Fred Thompson, probably).
Is it possible that going into Mega-Tuesday, there isn’t a clear frontrunner?