The folks at Daily Kos conducted a poll in the district of Jim Cooper, Blue Dog Democrat of Tennessee, and contended that the results suggest Cooper is way out of line from his constituents.
Cooper disagrees with the interpretation and makes the case that the results are unreliable. He raises a pretty valid point: At the exact moment that Obama’s approval is down across the country, the Kos poll shows Obama’s approval up ten percent from his share of the vote on Election Day 2008. Most polls are putting Obama’s approval rating just north of 50 percent, and we’re to believe that he’s at 66 percent in a district that’s got a Cook Partisan Index of D+3? Is this some Bizarro Congressional District where Obama’s approval rating rises while it falls everywhere else?
The other fascinating note about the Kos post is how it talks about “an opening for a strong primary challenge. Cooper isn’t the lock many (including him) believe him to be.” So who’s the challenger? Until somebody comes forward (and demonstrates an ability to poll well against the incumbent, raise money, etc.), that’s a pretty empty threat.