The Campaign Spot

Somebody’s Trying To Pull a Fast One

A reader sent me this article, from a service called All Headline News, asking if McCain had peaked in the polls.

Three new general election surveys on Thursday showed Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) again losing against his two rivals for the presidency…
The Public Policy Institute of California said McCain would lose to Obama, 40 to 49 percent, and would also lose to Clinton, with 43 to 46 percent… The Republican nominee likewise loses to both Democrats in a Pew Research survey taken between March 19 and March 22. The poll found McCain was defeated by Obama 43 to 49 percent and by Clinton 44 to 49 percent.
Quinnipiac University, on the other hand, said Obama has an almost 20-point lead over McCain, where he beat the Republican 52 to 35 percent. Against Clinton, McCain wins with 45 to 42 percent.

It would help if the writer distinguished between state polls and national polls.
The Pew poll is national (although of registered voters, not likely voters). But the PPIC poll is only in California, and if McCain really is within three points of Hillary Clinton in California, the GOP ought to be nothing but invigorated. And the Quinnipiac poll is only of Connecticut.
You and I know that California and Connecticut were blue states in 2000 and 2004, so that’s playing with house money for Republicans. Win either of those and the race is just about over.
It’s possible that McCain may be reaching his peak, looking bipartisan and statesmanlike as he tours the world with Joe Lieberman and hangs with Sarko in Paris, while the Democratic race devolves into Judas Iscariot vs. Joe McCarthy. But these polls aren’t evidence of that.