The Campaign Spot

Something Big Might Be Bruu-ing in Oregon

One more example of an internal poll showing a GOP challenger leading a Democratic incumbent in a House race . . . except this is in a seat where the Democratic incumbent won by 16 percentage points last time.

Republican Scott Bruun has released a new poll taken for his campaign by pollster Bob Moore that claims to show him in a tight race with Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore.

The survey shows Bruun with 41 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Schrader.  That’s well within the poll’s margin of error of six percentage points.

Perhaps more telling, Moore said in a memo that the political climate in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District has changed quite a bit since 2008.  In July of 2008, Moore said, his polling showed that voters preferred a Democrat over a Republican candidate, 44 percent to 33 percent. In the latest poll, conducted Aug. 18-19, voters now say they prefer a Republican, 44 percent to 37 percent.  Alee Lockman, a spokeswoman for Bruun, said these findings were taken at the beginning of the poll, before respondents were asked a series of questions about the candidates.

In 2008, Schrader beat Republican Mike Erickson, 54.3 percent to 38.3 percent.

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