The Campaign Spot

To Summarize, Bunches and Bunches of House Democrat Incumbents Trail.

The American Action Forum has completed its round of surveys in key West Coast House districts. Their previous rounds in other parts of the country have shown generally good news for Republicans, but I think we can call today’s numbers the nightmare scenario for Democrats.

Among their collective findings:

  • Voters say the country is on the wrong track by a nearly three-to-one margin. Sixty-eight percent of the likely voters in these districts say the country is on the wrong track, while just 24 percent say the country is heading in the right direction.

  • A plurality of voters prefers a Republican on the generic ballot test. While each of these ten districts have Democratic incumbents, voters in these districts prefer a Republican to a Democrat as their next congressman by a 41 to 34 percent margin.

  • President Obama and Speaker Pelosi are both viewed unfavorably in these districts. Voters in these districts give Barack Obama a 44 to 51 percent favorable-to-unfavorable rating and give Nancy Pelosi a 29 to 58 percent rating.

  • A majority of the likely voters in these districts oppose the health-care reform plan. Voters oppose the new law by a 53 to 39 percent margin, including 45 percent who strongly oppose it.

In the individual districts, they found . . .

AZ-1: “Despite Representative Ann Kirkpatrick having 95 percent name ID (with a 42 to 37 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Paul Gosar’s 46 percent (23 to 6 percent favorable), Gosar leads on the ballot by a 47 to 41 percent margin.”

AZ-5: “Despite Representative Harry Mitchell having 97 percent name ID (with a 42 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Schweikert’s 77 percent (33 to 18 percent favorable), Schweikert leads on the ballot by a 50 to 44 percent margin.”

AZ-8: “Despite Representative Gabrielle Giffords having 99 percent name ID (with a 52 to 41 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jesse Kelly’s 78 percent (33 to 25 percent favorable), Giffords and Kelly are currently tied on the ballot at 46 percent each.”

CA-11: “Despite Representative Jerry McNerney having 93 percent name ID (with a 41 to 34 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Harmer’s 47 percent (19 to 8 percent favorable), Harmer currently leads McNerney on the ballot by a razor-thin 45 to 44 percent margin.”

CA-47: “Despite Representative Loretta Sanchez having 96 percent name ID (with a 46 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Van Tran’s 67 percent (26 to 18 percent favorable), Sanchez leads on the ballot by just a 45 to 43 percent margin.”

CO-3: “Despite Representative John Salazar having 98 percent name ID (with a 45 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Tipton’s 73 percent (28 to 19 percent favorable), Tipton leads on the ballot by a 51 to 43 percent margin.”

CO-4: “Despite Representative Betsey Markey having 98 percent name ID (with a 37 to 50 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Cory Gardner’s 57 percent (23 to 13 percent favorable), Gardner leads on the ballot by a 50 to 39 percent margin.”

NM-1: “Despite Representative Martin Heinrich having 97 percent name ID (with a 46 to 39 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jon Barela’s 48 percent (20 to 11 percent favorable), Heinrich is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Barela by a 49 to 42 percent margin.”

[Note that this is what qualifies as “good news” for Democrats, an incumbent below 50 with a 7 percentage point lead.]

NV-3: “Despite Representative Dina Titus having 99 percent name ID (with a 46 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Joe Heck’s 78 percent (32 to 21 percent favorable), Heck leads Titus on the ballot by a 48 to 45 percent margin.”

OR-5: “Despite Representative Kurt Schrader having 83 percent name ID (with a 34 to 24 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Bruun’s 40 percent (11 to 7 percent favorable), Schrader is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Bruun by a 44 to 36 percent margin.”

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