‘As things stand now, or should I say if the election were held yesterday, Brown probably wins.’

Bit by bit, I’m starting to come around to the thinking in this analysis from one of my favorite readers, a.k.a. Number-Cruncher:

Data is coming in fast, but this is by far one of the most fascinating races in recent memory.

 

Two polls show this a dead heat, the most recent Rasmussen poll IS in line with MA voter registration.  In fact if you apply the voting splits from the Rasmussen poll, against the actual MA 2008 Voter Registration numbers, Brown wins outright. This is amazing! The previously sited PPP which shows Brown leading by a point, provides significantly more favorable splits to Brown, however these splits are NOT unreasonable. I don’t believe either poll adequately factors in the disparity of voter enthusiasm for Brown vs. Coakley which in a special election could open this thing up in favor of Brown. As I have e-mailed before, this thing is shaping up as a political firestorm.  I don’t blame the pollsters for not seeing what very well is happening.  It is simply too artbitrary for a reputable polling company to try and predict special election turnout.  Its one thing to predict “likely voters” where you have historical data trends, quite another to predict likely voters in a special election.  HOWEVER, I think its fair to say that wherever the polls the polls are, given the enthusiasm gap, Brown is going to do better. Thus, in my view where polls show a dead heat, or where polls show Coakley hovering around 50%, Brown wins or is in a dead heat . . .

Polling data shows that Mass voters on balance “like” the Health bill (52-46). But here is Coakley’s problem, those 46 who don’t like it REALLY DON’T LIKE IT!, those 52 who like it, are not as passionate (and likely young . . . and stupid). I will bet a dime on a dollar that in raw number more of the 46% crowd will vote than the 52% crowd. This, of course, is why I think Brown will win.

It remains to be seen if the polling levels remain. It is very possible Brown may have peaked a week early. It’s also very possible that final polls start to open up with Coakley showing consistent support in the mid 50’s, and Brown in the low 40’s. If this occurs, then I believe an upset is far less likely.  But as things stand now, or should I say if the election were held yesterday, Brown probably wins.

Number-Cruncher also notes that while everyone says, accurately, that Massachusetts is one of the most heavily Democratic states, until November you could have said the same thing about New Jersey. He also notes that Massachusetts has fewer African-American voters than New Jersey, meaning Democrats have fewer voters in one of their most reliable demographics . . .