The Campaign Spot

Today’s Economic Update: Run for Your Lives

The Dow had a barely-above-even day, after yesterday’s delightful jolt. But Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is always pretty gloomy. His latest thoughts:

The man who predicted the current financial crisis said the US recession could drag on for years without drastic action.
“We are in the 15th month of a recession,” said Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, told CNBC in a live interview. “Growth is going to be close to zero and unemployment rate well above 10 percent into next year.”
Echoing a speech he made earlier in the day, Roubini said he sees “no hope for the recession ending in 2009 and will more than likely last into 2010.”
Roubini, who is also known as “Dr. Doom,” told CNBC that the risk of a total meltdown has been reversed for now but that the economy is going through “a death by a thousand cuts.” He also said that “most of the U.S. financial institutions are entirely insolvent.”
He said that while U.S. GDP next year could be zero, global GDP could dip into negative territory.
“We could end up . . . with a 36-month recession, that could be “L-shaped stagnation, or near depression,” Roubini said. He puts the chance of a severe U-shaped recession at 66.7 percent, and a more severe L-shaped recession at 33.3 percent.

Save him some room in Glenn Beck’s bunker.

Sometimes you get the feeling we’re not too far away from, “Well, Maria, according to my projections, in the next six months, Interstate 95 is going to look like Mad Max, so I’m heavily leveraged in football pads and hockey masks right now.”


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