The Campaign Spot

Tonight, Obama’s Delegate Lead Probably Increases By 7 or 9 (UPDATE: Maybe Less.)

Mississippi is voting today.

On the Democratic side, 33 delegates are at stake. Twenty-two are allocated based on how the candidates perform in the four congressional districts; five each to the winner of the first, third, and fourth districts, and seven to the winner of the second district. Eleven more are allocated to the contenders based on the statewide vote.
ARG puts Obama up 2 to 1 statewide.Barring any congressional district splitting wildly disproportionate to that, Obama is going to end tonight with about 20 or 21 delegates, Hillary is going to get 13 or 12. (If it does split, and if Hillary carries the district, then it’s most likely a 3 to 2 split in her favor instead of his; no massive swings in the delegate count.)
Obama had 1,578 delegates to Clinton’s 1,468 on Monday, according to the AP, a 110 delegate lead. By tomorrow morning, it will probably be 117 or 119.
Proportional allocation of delegates makes for one hard slog.
UPDATE: Ben, a self-described obsessive delegate-counter, thinks it will turn out much closer because the districts are effectively racially gerrymandered:

CD2 is the district that is African-American and Obama could very well run up the margin to 5-2 there. But CD1 (rural district next to Arkansas) and CD4 (that the Clintons have targeted in their few appearances in the state) will definitely go 3-2 for Clinton. CD3 should be more interesting to watch but the final margin there will be 3-2 one way or another anyway.

So at best he would get 11-11 or maybe 12-10, with the extra delegate won statewide on top.Nowhere near 7 or 9 delegates.

Wow. A 60-40 win in Wyoming added two delegates to his lead,  and a similar lead tonight could possibly result in a tie. Those Republican winner-take-all states sure look pretty good right now, huh? 


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