The Campaign Spot

Tough Year to Be a Democrat in New Hampshire, and/or America

PPP lays out the grim prospects for New Hampshire’s two House Democrats:

Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter has an upside down approval with 50% of voters disapproving of her job performance to just 41% giving her good marks. Hers is the more conservative of the state’s districts and she’s probably not helped by Obama’s negative 45/49 approval spread or the 52/42 opposition to the health care bill there.
In a hypothetical match up with Frank Guinta, Shea-Porter trails 46-45. It has little to do with Guinta – 52% of voters in the district don’t know enough about him to have an opinion and it’s far from inevitable that he will be the GOP nominee. But he nevertheless leads 45-42 among independents and takes 9% of Democrats to Shea-Porter’s 7% of Republicans. Shea-Porter has not really done any bipartisan bridge building so that puts her fate in the hands of independents and that will make it tough for her this fall with independents everywhere leaning toward the GOP. This one looks like a tossup.
If the best known candidates for Paul Hodes’ open seat win their party nominations Republicans will be heavily favored to take it back. Former Congressman Charlie Bass leads 2002 Democratic nominee Katrina Swett 47-32. Those numbers are pretty comparable to what happened when they faced off the first time and Bass won 57-41, not a huge surprise given that this is the first year where New Hampshire Republicans have much cause for optimism since that 2002 election.

Hey, remember when they said voters would learn to love the health-care bill?