The Campaign Spot

Two Interesting Polls in California House Races…

In 2006, California Democrat Rep. Dennis Cardoza won 65 percent of the vote. In 2008, Cardoza ran unopposed.

In 2010, Republican Mike Berryhill is within 6 of him.

In an election for US House of Representatives from California’s 18th Congressional District today, 10/07/10, 3 days after early voting began and 25 days until votes are counted, incumbent Democrat Dennis Cardoza has a narrow advantage over well-known Republican challenger Mike Berryhill, 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish, for KFSN-TV in Fresno.

White voters break 5:4 Republican. Hispanic voters break 3:1 Democrat. The percentage of the electorate that is Hispanic, here estimated at 23%, will determine the size of Cardoza’s margin.

Elsewhere in California, I am hearing that a new SurveyUSA poll shows Republican David Harmer… leading incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney. You’ll hear more as I hear it.

UPDATE: Wow!

 In an election for US House of Representatives in California’s 11th congressional district today, 10/12/10, Republican David Harmer edges incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney 48% to 42%, according to this latest exclusive KPIX-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Among men, Harmer leads by 20 points; among women, McNerney leads by 6 — a 26-point gender gap. Harmer has a bubble of support among voters age 35 to 49; the candidates are effectively even among older voters. Harmer, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Congress in Utah’s 2nd District in 1996 and in California’s neighboring 10th Congressional District in a special election last year, takes 8 of 10 Republican votes. McNerney, who is seeking a third term, takes 8 of 10 Democratic votes. Independents break 5:3 for the Republican.

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