The Campaign Spot

UPDATED: Registered Republicans Have 94,000-Vote Edge in Colorado’s Early Vote

Democratic firm Public Policy Polling just unveiled a survey in Colorado, conducted for the League of Conservation Voters, showing Republican Cory Gardner and Democratic incumbent Mark Udall tied, with 48 percent each.

This is a surprise, as most polls of this race showed a solid Gardner lead. Just this morning, Quinnipiac unveiled a poll showing the Republican ahead by 7 points and Rasmussen had Gardner up by 6.

One other piece of evidence casting doubt on the race’s ending with the candidates neck-and-neck: a good chunk of the state’s vote is already in — 905,500 ballots, or probably close to half the vote.

Registered Democrats returned 294,648 of these ballots, or 32.5 percent; registered Republicans were 379,250, or 41.8 percent.

A candidate whose party is outpacing the competition by a 9.3-percentage-point margin, with 40 to 45 percent of the ballots counted, is in a pretty nice spot. Not rock-solid locked up, but in a nice spot.

Also note that we’ve heard quite a bit about Democrats’ better-than-ever vote-targeting and get-out-the-vote efforts, and Republicans undoubtedly remember 2012 quite well. But if Democrats have a great get-out-the-vote system in Colorado, we haven’t seen it yet.

UPDATE: The Denver Post releases a poll showing Gardner up by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent. They have him up by 3 points among those who have already voted. The survey also shows Gardner ahead by 7 points among independents.

ANOTHER UPDATE: If the 84,000-vote advantage of yesterday wasn’t enough to cheer Republicans, here are today’s numbers: 1,038,023 votes, 336,908 Democrats, 431,711 Republicans. A 94,803-vote margin.

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