Ed Gillespie’s campaign is sending around this video of Andrea Mitchell saying Democrats are “nervous” about the race in Virginia.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ClU6yf8qB-s%3Frel%3D0
And today we got the first piece of information that should probably unnerve Mark Warner:
Virginia voters returned 118,218 absentee ballots for today's election
Virginia voters returned 508,938 absentee ballots for 2008 election
— Scott MacFarlane (@MacFarlaneNews) November 4, 2014
That’s a drop from 10 percent of registered voters to 2 percent. That’s slightly better than 2010 in raw numbers but still a pretty big drop-off.
Yes, turnout in a midterm election is always significantly lower than presidential years; Virginia had 44 percent turnout in 2010 (with no gubernatorial or Senate races) and 66 percent in 2012. Yes, Virginia is a state where a voter needs to offer a reason for voting early or absentee, but it’s hardly a Draconian enforcement of proof of travel or other commitments.
Here’s how Virginians voted in 2010, in those House-only races:
Gillespie’s still an underdog, but low turnout leaves a less steep climb in front of him.