According to a Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos in Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd is still ahead of Republican challenger Rob Simmons, 45 percent to 40 percent.
The poll presumes, of course, that the electorate on Election Day is 41 percent Democrat, 21 percent Republican, and 38 percent Independent — a 20 percent spread on Party ID.
In 2008, a spectacular year for Democrats, in a state the McCain campaign never seriously contested, the partisan breakdown in exit polls was 43 percent Democrat, 27 percent Republican, and 31 percent Independent or something else — a 16 percent spread.
In other words, as long as 2010 is a little better for Democrats than 2008 was, he’ll be fine.
UPDATE: A reader notes the differences between presidential election years and off-year elections, and says that 2006 is a better comparison, as it, too, was a phenomenal year for Democrats (and had the drama of the Joe Lieberman-Ned Lamont race). Partisan breakdown that year? Democrats 38 percent, Republicans 26 percent, Independents 36 percent.