Naturally, while I’m on a train with spotty wi-fi, the entire midterm-election landscape changes.
Okay, slight exaggeration, but some big news broke in the past few hours.
Every conservative you know is already buzzing about the Marquette Law School poll, putting Republican incumbent governor Scott Walker ahead, 50 percent to 43 percent over Democrat Mary Burke among likely voters. As we see on the Sean Trende chart, in recent cycles, a candidate with a 7-point lead, 7 days from Election Day, went on to win . . . 100 percent of the time. Perhaps Walker will be the big exception.
It’s pretty clear that in a cycle with some big gubernatorial races — Rick Scott vs. Charlie Crist in Florida, Bob Beauprez vs. John Hickenlooper in Colorado, Bruce Rauner vs. Pat Quinn in Illinois — the Wisconsin race had the biggest ramifications for 2016. Obviously, Walker is often mentioned as a potential GOP presidential candidate. And while liberal groups and unions may have failed in their recall-election effort, derailing his reelection bid would be a strong signal to other governors that public-sector-union pension reform and other parts of the Walker agenda could cost them their jobs.
You’ll recall that on that Sean Trende chart, a 4-percentage-point lead is when candidates’ chances for victory on Election Day hit 80 to 90 to 100 percent. Good news for Iowa Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst, whom Quinnipiac puts ahead by 4 points.
Also exciting Republicans from Quinnipiac, a poll from out in Colorado showing Beauprez ahead by 5 in the governor’s race.
Wait, there’s more. A Monmouth poll of Georgia’s races shows Republican David Perdue ahead, 49 percent to 41 percent, in the Senate race — close to the 50 percent threshold — and the GOP gubernatorial candidate, Nathan Deal, ahead, 48 percent to 42 percent. (Some are arguing that the proportion of African-Americans in the sample of that poll is too low.)
But just in case you’re feeling too good, Greg Orman continues to hold a small lead in the Kansas Senate race . . .