I’ve had this feeling for much of the past year that, while Republicans would inevitably have some “how did we lose that one?” races on Election Night — Colorado’s governor’s race, for one — in this environment, we would probably see at least one Democrat who was never considered vulnerable defeated in a shocker.
For a while, Bobby Schilling beating Phil Hare in Illinois 17 seemed like that upset, but now it’s almost conventional wisdom; the polls show a dead heat. Ron Johnson beating Russ Feingold in Wisconsin’s Senate race would have been a great upset pick about two months ago; now Johnson leads considerably.
Ilario Pantano vs. Mike McIntyre in North Carolina 7? Nope, now everybody thinks that one will be close.
Bill Hudak, candidate for U.S. Congress in the Massachusetts 6th Congressional District, announced today that a new poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies showed the race tightening considerably, with Hudak leading among Independent voters by 41% to 40% and trailing Congressman John Tierney by only 7 points (39% Hudak vs. 46% Tierney) among high interest likely voters. Additionally, the poll finds John Tierney’s “re-elect” number at only 38 percent.
* Among the 66% of voters who have heard of both candidates, the race is tied at 43% to 43%.
* Responding to the question, “Do you think that John Tierney has performed his job as Congressman well enough to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for change and a new person to be elected?”, 38% said they would vote for a new person, 38% indicated they would probably re-elect Tierney (but only 32% were definite), and 23% were undecided.
* Responding to the question, “Would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?”, 59% answered that the country is on the wrong track, 30% said it is on the right track, and 11% had no opinion.
* Among these “wrong track” voters, Bill Hudak leads John Tierney by 51% to 29%.
The telephone survey conducted in Massachusetts’ Sixth Congressional District was completed on September 26-27, 2010 among 400 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-4.9%.
Not a likely GOP win at this moment, but much closer than normal; since 2000, the least Tierney has won in a general election is 64.4 percent.