I’ve heard some folks trying to describe the national Gallup poll showing Hillary ahead of Obama for the first time in a month (merely 46 percent to 45 percent) as a blip, an outlier. But it’s actually the culmination of a steady trend in the tracking poll — an Obama lead of 11 percent on the 14th, 8 percent on the 15th, 7 percent on the 16th, 3 percent on the 17th, and finally she overtakes him on the 18th.
Newsweek’s poll, which showed Obama running away with it, has generated a great deal of buzz, as it shows Obama carrying women and elderly voters. Either there’s been a dramatic break in the dynamics of the race, and Newsweek caught it before the Gallup tracking poll and the Rasmussen tracking poll… or their sample was the outlier.
It wouldn’t surprise me if we had just reached a decisive moment in the race since Ohio and Texas, the 1-2-3 wallops of the Wright videos, the “cling” comments at the San Francisco fundraiser, and the debate. The Democrats are either digesting this information and feeling doubts about Obama, or they’re rejecting all of these events and revelations as non-issues and deciding to stand with their new favorite.