The Campaign Spot

Why I Think Richard Burr Is Up by a Lot More Than 8 Points

The latest from the fellows at Public Policy Polling:

There’s good news for both Elaine Marshall and Richard Burr in PPP’s newest poll of the North Carolina Senate race.The good news for Marshall is that she’s picking up undecided voters and closing the gap against Burr. She now trails by 8 points, 48-40, after facing a 13 point deficit against Burr three weeks ago. She’s starting to shore up her support with the base, getting 73% of Democrats compared to 65% in the previous poll.

But looking at the history of this race . . .

North Carolina senator Richard Burr’s margin over Elaine Marshall in PPP polls this year: 8, 13, 5, 2, 5, 7, 1, 6, 5, 10.

Burr’s average lead in PPP polls: 6.2.

North Carolina Senator Richard Burr’s margin over Elaine Marshall in all other polls this year: 14, 20, 24, 16, 9, 7, 10, 15, 10, 1, 14, 8, 18, 16, 16, 25, 10.

Burr’s average lead in all other polls: 13.7.

Oh, by the way, PPP did work for Marshall earlier this cycle. I also think this quote should be featured in every story that mentions PPP results in this race:

“We’re absolutely rooting in the race. We don’t want Richard Burr to get reelected. We wanted Obama to win last fall,” said [PPP’s Tom] Jensen.

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