Charles, one of the fine Campaign Spot readers in Iraq, writes in:
I’m in Iraq right now (but registered in Tallahassee) and cast my absentee ballot on Jan 1 for McCain (Fred Thompson was a close second in my rankings).
My sister (registered in Orange Park) cast her absentee ballot two weeks ago for Romney. She’s a student at Florida State University, where my impression of the College Republicans there is that most are Romney supporters, with Huckabee and Paul being distant second and third in some fashion. (This impression was formed before I left in October.)
The voting pattern of my sister and I makes me think that if McCain wins by 1-1.5%, it will be due early voters that opted for Thompson (and presumably had Romney second in their rankings).
Charles, thanks for your service. And thanks for this fascinating wrinkle — early voting in Florida began January 14, and Thompson departed the race on January 22. There’s about a week’s worth of Thompson votes in there that might have gone for another GOP candidate.