The Campaign Spot

Wondering if Democrats Used to Winning 56% or So Should Sweat a Bit

The Rasmussen poll of Maryland’s Senate race does not suggest it will be high on the list of possible upsets this cycle:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Maryland finds Mikulski with a 25-point lead — 58% to 33% — over Eric Wargotz, a doctor and county commissioner who is perhaps the best known of her little-known challengers. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Having said that, it’s worth noting that Mikulski’s number in this poll is a good chunk lower than her usual share of the vote; she won 65 percent in 2004, 71 percent in 1998, 71 percent in 1992, and 61 percent in her first Senate race back in 1986.

In this environment, could traditionally “safe” Democrats be running 7 to 14 points behind their usual level of support? 


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