Markos Moulitsas — yes, the creator of Daily Kos — writes in with some analysis of the latest poll of Virginia voters he commissioned. Bottom line, it’s still a very close race, but Deeds is rising and McAuliffe seems stuck:
Democratic Primary voters MoE 5%
Creigh Deeds (D) 30 (13)
Brian Moran (D) 27 (22)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 26 (36)
Undecided 17 (29)
The numbers are clearly a statistical tie, but looking at the trends, a couple of things stand out:
1. Whatever the opposite of “momentum” is, McAuliffe has that.
2. Deeds gained a whopping 17-points in just two weeks. The momentum is clearly his.
3. Undecideds dropped by 12 points, McAuliffe lost another 10. While we can’t assume direct correlation, the math ads up — 17 to Deeds, five to Moran.
4. The 2006 Democratic Senate primary between Harris Miller and Jim Webb had a turnout of just 3.45% (not a typo). This race is significantly higher profile, but turnout should still be frightfully low. That means the campaigns face an apathetic, uninterested electorate. Whichever campaign has the more motivated supporters, and has the ground game to drag them out to the polls, will win.
And oh yeah – there are head-to-head matchups, too.
McDonnell 43, Moran 35.
McDonnell 46, McAuliffe 33.
McDonnell 46, Deeds 34.
McDonnell fans, if you need to take a minute to savor those numbers, go right ahead.