The Morning Jolt


The Eagles Win Their First Super Bowl

Making the click-through worthwhile: The Philadelphia Eagles get their long-sought Lombardi Trophy, and some Philadelphians get their long-sought excuse to smash things; a few ominous signs in the stock markets that will probably be exploited by the president’s critics; California Democrats lurch to the left and tout a wildly unworkable proposal; and where I’ll be next weekend.

A Great Night for Eagles Fans, a Rough Night for Philadelphia Insurance Companies

That’s great, Philadelphia. You deserve all of this joy after so many years of disappointment.

And a lot of the city is still standing after last night. Just not quite all of it.

Philadelphia is cleaning up after its late-night street celebrations, where some overzealous fans smashed windows, climbed traffic lights and trashed some convenience stores.

Rowdy fans clambered atop the awning at the swanky Ritz Carlton Hotel on Broad Street near City Hall, jumping off into the crowd in what one Twitter post calls “Ritz Carlton Skydiving.” The awning could be seen collapsing later with a large group of people on top of it. It’s not clear if anyone was injured. Nearby, windows were smashed at a Macy’s department store.

And apparently no amount of grease in the world can keep some Eagles fans from climbing poles in celebration. A few managed to shimmy up traffic lights and street sign poles on Broad Street. And after 1 a.m., the only people allowed inside the Wawa convenience store were police officers.

An observation: No one is ever so overcome by euphoria and the joy of victory that they turn their own car upside down — suggesting that there’s a little more self-control at work than the hooligans would claim.

Could Investors Have a Bumpy Ride Even as the Economy Grows?

Investors have enjoyed a really, really, really good run in the stock market for the past year or so. No bull market lasts forever, and every good run ends with something of a “correction” as stock prices get back in line with their earnings ratio.

Are we witnessing the beginning of the “correction”? Apparently the Dow futures are down nearly 300 points this morning. Friday brought a good jobs report, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average still dropped 666 points. (The market of the devil!)

A week ago:

Goldman Sachs believes “correction signals are flashing” and is advising its clients to prepare for a correction in the coming months as investors pour cash into the stock market.

“Whatever the trigger, a correction of some kind seems a high probability in the coming months,” Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote Monday. “Our Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Market Indicator is at elevated levels, although the continuation of low core inflation and easy monetary policy suggests that a correction is more likely than a bear market.”

The S&P 500 has entered the longest period since 1929 without a correction of more than 5 percent, the strategist explained. And while bear markets risks are “low,” Oppenheimer wouldn’t be surprised to see a market re-rating in the next few months.

“Drawdowns within bull markets of 10 percent or more are not uncommon,” Oppenheimer added. “The average bull market ‘correction’ is 13 percent over four months and takes just four months to recover.”

This is why the president ought to be a little careful when touting the boom in the stock markets in his first year. The correction shouldn’t give back anything close to the 31 percent it gained in Trump’s first year. But we may see a decline in the coming weeks or months, and the president’s foes in the media will probably eagerly label it a sign of the “Trump Depression.”

California’s Future Looks Depressingly Clear

If we thought California was liberal before, apparently we haven’t seen anything yet.

[Winning a Democratic primary] means staking out the most liberal stance on issues such as single-payer health care in California, a highly expensive initiative that failed in the legislature last year. The push is in response to the uncertainty surrounding health-care revisions in Washington, but it is estimated to cost twice the state’s annual budget.

Candidates will be forced to defend California’s “sanctuary state” status on immigration and push investment in the solar power and electric car industries to reach strict environmental goals. They also will have to address a sexual harassment scandal that, in Democratic consultant Bill Carrick’s description, “hangs like a black cloud” over a State Capitol where two Democratic lawmakers have resigned and another has been suspended.

The single-payer health plan is likely to strike you as the most unrealistic plan and predictable failure imaginable.

California is undertaking an ambitious bid to establish a single-payer health care system, and now its plan has a price tag: $400 billion a year.

The state legislature has been debating a plan this year to implement a government insurance program to cover all Californians, including those without legal status.

It’s a very generous proposal, as currently conceived. The state would pay for almost all of its residents’ medical expenses — inpatient, outpatient, emergency services, dental, vision, mental health, and nursing home care — under the plan, and Californians would not have any premiums, copays, or deductibles. Those sweeping benefits drive up costs.

Think about it, if this goes into effect, if someone comes into the country illegally, the state of California will pay every penny of the bill for all of that person’s health care. I’m half-tempted to let them try it just for the “teachable moment.” The odds are good that the $400 billion estimate is low because it’s not accounting for the population shifts that would follow enactment of such a law; California would instantly become the destination of choice for everyone with health problems in the entire world.

The state already has a “severe” doctor shortage. Researchers recommend at least 60 doctors for every 100,000 people; only two of nine regions in the state meet that threshold. The Inland Empire has just 39 doctors for every 100,000 people. How many more people will head to doctor’s offices, clinics, and hospitals when the state is picking up the tab?

You know why California is dysfunctional? Because anyone who tells Democratic primary voters “we can’t afford it” or “this is unworkable” will lose the primary and thus lose the election.

In other news, Dianne Feinstein, who’s seemed a little confused lately, is seeking a fifth full term at age 84.

ADDENDUM: If you’re heading to the Leadership Program of the Rockies in Colorado Spring this coming weekend, I hope to see you there.


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