National Journal has a piece out on how Democrat incumbent Mary Jo Kilroy could win her seat a second time in OH-15. Highlights below:
Yesterday, we looked at Stivers’ campaign plan. Today, we dive into Kilroy’s plan for fighting a Republican wave.
One aspect of this race that is particularly striking: Both sides are confident that they will win. Republicans have seen Kilroy’s personal disapproval remain consistently high throughout her first term, while Democrats believe Stivers’ lobbying background and the district’s base of young voters (at Ohio State) and government workers (in the state capital) will keep Kilroy in the game.[…]
A poll put out by the conservative American Action Forum found a few surprises in OH 15. First, there was an even split on support of health care reform — one of Kilroy’s top issues. 46% supported the legislation, 47% opposed it. In most other districts, health care reform performed significantly worse. More, Pres. Obama was viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 46%. That’s much better than he fared in other congressional districts in the same batch of swing-district polls.
That means that unlike other Dems in tough races, Kilroy won’t have to run away from the White House. In fact, she’s expected to get some campaign help from First Lady Michelle Obama.
The article also notes Kilroy will piggyback on other Democrats’ anti-Wall Street messaging.
You can judge whether this is effective for yourself. One highly placed source in the Stivers campaign told Battle ‘10 that the plan was “delusional,” because if running against Wall Street worked, Ted Strickland would be in the lead.
Said the source, “Remember, Kasich’s name ID is way behind the Governor’s so the idea that he could be defined by the Lehman Brothers background actually makes sense. It hasn’t worked with a statewide electorate much more inclined to be anti-financial services than Ohio 15.”