County-level data are significant enough in a few places to note that Ted Cruz is doing well enough to win in Eastern Iowa, where he is running ahead of Marco Rubio, and in the medium-sized counties (Hamilton, Hardin, Franklin) in north central Iowa typical of the places religious conservatives need if they are to win. He might drop back as the larger precincts, which are likelier to be in urban and suburban areas where he should be weaker, start to report. But he’s definitely looking good enough now to say he has a real shot.