The Biggest Threat to Amy Coney Barrett’s Confirmation

T oday, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said: “I haven’t actually been to the White House since August the 6th. Because my impression was that their approach to how to handle this is different from mine and what I suggested that we do in the Senate, which is to wear a mask and practice social distancing.”

“If any of you have been around me since May the 1st, I’ve said, ‘Wear your mask. Practice social distancing,’” McConnell continued. “Now, you’ve heard of other places that have had a different view, and they are, you know, paying the price for it.”

Many observers are interpreting McConnell’s remarks as a sign to fellow senators that they shouldn’t be afraid to distance themselves from President Trump’s sometimes cavalier approach to the virus.

That seems correct, but you can also hear McConnell warning fellow Republican senators that they need to be more careful over the next two weeks to avoid further COVID cases that could threaten the confirmation vote of Amy Coney Barrett.

Last week, Republican senators Mike Lee, Thom Tillis, and Ron Johnson each tested positive for COVID. Johnson said this week that he’d vote for Barrett in a “moon suit” if necessary. A COVID-infected Republican senator in a “moon suit” voting to confirm Barrett would likely be portrayed as a crime against humanity by the press — even if it could be done safely after all senators left the chamber, and even if the act would be portrayed as heroic by the press if we were talking about a Democratic senator voting on a stimulus bill.

But Johnson shouldn’t need his moon suit. As the Washington Post reported in July, the Centers for Disease Control “advises most people with active cases of covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, to isolate for 10 days after symptoms begin and 24 hours after their fever has broken. After that, they are free to leave isolation.”

So, Lee, Tillis, and Johnson should be back to work and healthy in time to vote. But the biggest threat to Barrett’s timely confirmation would be a couple of Senate Republicans — some of whom are in their 70s and 80s — becoming physically unable to attend any necessary Senate votes.

Over the weekend, McConnell sent a letter to his Republican colleagues announcing that the Senate would be holding pro forma sessions until October 19. “On that day, we will need all Republican senators back and healthy to ensure we have a quorum,” McConnell wrote. “We need to lead now with extra prudence and care, not just for our own health and well being, but to be able to perform our elected duties and to be examples to the country. Wear masks, stay distant, and come back safely on the 19th.”

The message from McConnell today and over the weekend was clear: Republican senators need to take every precaution they can to ensure a smooth confirmation vote on Amy Coney Barrett.

In other words, they need to be more careful than the Republican senators who attended the White House event announcing Barrett’s nomination on September 26. It is not known for sure where they became infected, but two of the eight senators who attended the event tested positive (Lee and Tillis). The senators had all tested negative on the rapid-test used by the White House, but it has been a well-known fact that that test is prone to producing false-negative results. Photos showed many senators engaging in conversation without a mask on, and one video even showed Senator Lee greeting people with hugs in the Rose Garden.

It’s not clear how many Republican absences it would take to derail a prompt vote. They control the Senate 53-47, and Republicans Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska have indicated they oppose a vote on Barrett before the election. But during the Kavanaugh confirmation, when Montana Republican senator Steve Daines could not be present due to his daughter’s wedding, Murkowski agreed to vote “present” rather than “no” to balance out Daines’s absence — a practice known as “vote pairing.” It’s not clear what Murkowski and Collins would do if any of their Republican colleagues were absent under different circumstances this time around.

If the Barrett vote is pushed past the election for whatever reason, that doesn’t necessarily mean she won’t be confirmed. When Mitt Romney was asked if he’d vote to confirm a nominee after Election Day if Biden wins, the Utah senator said he’d still vote based on the qualifications of the nominee. “I’m not going to get into the particulars of who wins and who doesn’t. There are many possibilities that we could go through,” he said. “I’ve indicated that what I intend to do, is to proceed with the consideration process and if a nominee actually reaches the floor, then I will vote based upon the qualifications of that nominee.”

Still, there’s always the risk Romney and another senator or two could change their mind about a confirmation vote in the lame-duck session of Congress. And that’s one reason why McConnell has been warning his colleagues they need to stay healthy.