In an oppressively one-party state, it will open the door to a much-needed debate about politics and policy.
In an oppressively one-party state, it will open the door to a much-needed debate about politics and policy.
T hree months ago, no one expected a recall of Governor Gavin Newsom to make the ballot. Then Newsom broke his own coronavirus protocols and attended an opulent dinner at French Laundry, one of the most expensive restaurants in the country, with lobbyists. Photos show that no one was wearing masks or socially distancing.
And then he fibbed about it by claiming that the enclosed tent with glass doors, where the dinner was held, meant that the party had been held “outdoors.”
Newsom ultimately apologized, but the damage was done. ReformCalifornia.org says it has now surpassed the 1.5 million signatures needed to force a recall election this fall, and they have four more weeks to gather more signatures.
The conventional wisdom is that Newsom will survive a recall. Bookmakers in London say he has less than a one in five chance of being booted. Gray Davis, the California governor who in 2003 was successfully recalled and replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger, told Newsweek that by fall, “with good news” about the virus and a return to a “pretty close to normal” life, Newsom’s chances will look good.
Political analysts say a good sign for Newsom is that no superstar like a Schwarzenegger has yet emerged to run in the special election that will accompany the recall vote.
But the recall should be viewed through two prisms: policy and politics. It may be true that the recall will leave Newsom in the governor’s chair, but it could also shape a policy debate that will benefit the state.
“The mere existence of the recall movement has moved Newsom and his fellow Democrats away from some bad policies,” ReformCalifornia chairman Tom Del Beccaro tells me. Few dispute that the recall played a role in Newsom’s sudden decision to lift stay-at-home orders last month and also allow outdoor dining. Talk of an economically damaging income-tax increase or a wealth tax has also vanished for now.
A former state legislative leader told me that a recall election will offer California voters a real choice on the direction of their state. “Californians don’t pay much attention to policy until they have to,” he says. “Now the COVID lockdowns, closed schools, rising crime, and high taxes are forcing them to focus.”
When California voters focus on issues rather than personalities, they often exercise common sense. Consider the elections in November 2020. Democrats dominated the races for president, Congress, and legislature. But California voters rejected watering down the Proposition 13 property-tax cut, spurned an effort to restore racial preferences, turned thumbs down on a move to end cash bail for criminals, opposed allowing local rent control, and rejected a law designed to unionize app-based delivery and ride-sharing drivers.
A strong vote to recall Newsom that’s significantly larger than the 38 percent of voters who refused to back him in 2018 will send a message that the state’s Democratic tilt has clear limits.
Backers of the recall have a lot to work with in Newsom’s record, which is one reason that one in ten of the people signing the recall petition are Democrats.
Newsom’s handling of the coronavirus has been at best haphazard, characterized by constantly shifting lockdowns, closed schools, and vaccine-distribution snafus that have left the state 39th out of 50 in the number of vaccine doses that have been administered.
Then there is a fraud scandal that could be the largest in the state’s history. The state’s auditor reports that at least $10 billion in COVID-related unemployment benefits were paid to prisoners (including well-known convicted murderers such as Scott Peterson), people out of state, and fraudsters. Another $20 to $30 billion are suspected of being fraudulent. At the same time, millions of eligible residents struggled to get any checks at all. False claims could ultimately account for one in five of all unemployment dollars paid out.
Newsom has responded to these weaknesses with a PR blitz and an effort to ensure that Democrats will stick with him in the recall. Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis has already warned fellow Democrats not to file for the special election to replace Newsom if he is recalled.
Newsom has also tried to paint the recall effort as “a handful of partisan activists” who back Donald Trump and want to “demonize California’s people and attack California’s values.”
The three Republicans most talked about as candidates for governor weren’t original Trump supporters in 2016 but have made their peace or more with him. Former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer says he voted for Trump last year, but he touts his moderate record governing California’s second-largest city. Businessman John Cox, whom Newsom defeated by 62 percent to 38 percent in 2018, is positioning himself to the right of Faulconer. Ric Grinnell, Trump’s former ambassador to Germany and then his acting director of intelligence, is most likely to inherit support from MAGA forces.
While Trump won only 35 percent of California’s vote in 2020, the winner of the special recall election will be whoever gets a plurality of votes, no matter how few, scrambling the calculation that the candidates will have to make on what kind of Republican image they present to the public.
Democrats, for their part, hope to forestall party loyalists from voting for the recall by preventing any high-profile liberal from throwing his hat into the ring to replace Newsom. Silicon Valley is home to 74 billionaires, and one or more of them could jump into the race if the recall looks as if it might succeed.
Some Republicans hope to talk Tim Draper, a venture capital investor who has backed school-choice initiatives, into running.
What Newsom probably fears most is that a well-known Democrat who owes nothing to the state party machine — which is dominated by Newsom and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — might decide to run. Often mentioned is Antonio Villaraigosa, a former two-term mayor of Los Angeles who lost to Newsom in the primary for governor in 2018. At age 68, he could run as a problem-solver who has always insisted that he isn’t “a partisan warrior.” Indeed, in his race for governor, he backed reform of teacher-tenure laws and some school-choice measures, and he also poured cold water on a single-payer health system.
So while the safe money would be on Gavin Newsom’s surviving a recall in an overwhelmingly Democratic state, he has shown a remarkable tendency to make political mistakes and lower voter trust in his governance. He could continue in this vein.
But even if he doesn’t, a one-party state like California desperately needs a spirited debate on its future. Every day, more and more businesses relocate, and U-Haul moving vans take even lifelong residents away to places such as Texas and Arizona. A recall would be a chance to have that debate.