Don’t Call It a Deadline

W ashington politicos have been tensely waiting for Thursday and speaking as if Joe Biden’s presidency will be made or broken by the end of the day. While Thursday could prove an important inflection point in negotiations among warring Democratic factions, there is no particular reason to treat it as a deadline in any real sense.

At the heart of the matter is that progressives have been pushing for passage of President Biden’s sweeping social-spending plan, valued at $3.5 trillion, while moderates are more intent on the passage of a smaller bill that includes $550 billion in new spending on physical infrastructure. Progressives are not against the infrastructure bill in principle, but they fear that having already cleared the Senate, if the bill passes the House and becomes law, then moderates will have gotten what they want and thus no longer be motivated to vote for the larger social-spending legislation. Progressives are mobilizing to tank the infrastructure bill in hopes that it would boost chances for the larger bill.

Initially, progressives warned that they would not vote for the infrastructure bill without the passage of the reconciliation bill. Now, they may settle for a more specific set of demands from Senators Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, such as a price they’d accept. But the two Senate centrists have not even indicated how much of a reconciliation bill they’d be willing to vote for and seem in no particular rush to do so. Asked Wednesday about progressives who lamented how slowly he was moving, Manchin replied, “I didn’t know I was on their timetable.”

This week became the subject of focus because House speaker Nancy Pelosi had previously agreed with moderate House Democrats that she would consider the bipartisan infrastructure agreement on Monday. She ended up beginning debate on the bill that day, setting up a vote for Thursday. The date happens to mark the end of the fiscal year, the expiration of government funding, and the end of certain highway funds that were folded into the smaller bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Over the past few weeks, there have been all sorts of declarations that if the bipartisan bill fails or the vote is delayed, then moderates will feel betrayed by leadership and walk away. As noted above, there is a separate argument that the reconciliation bill will be abandoned if the smaller bill passes. Ultimately, however, Thursday’s so-called deadline isn’t a deadline in any real sense.

The only thing that matters is whether there are 50 votes in the Senate for legislation that can also pass the House. That holds true at any time. If the bipartisan infrastructure bill goes down in flames on Thursday, the people who support the bill will still presumably support it a few weeks, or a few months, from now. Similarly, if Manchin and Sinema eventually come around on some form of a reconciliation bill, progressives will still be interested in passing it. From their perspective, more money for community-college tuition or subsidized child care or climate programs will still be desirable, whether it passes in October, December, or sometime thereafter.

The hard-line stance that is being taken by progressives has been a long time building. The Left has always complained that centrists have too much influence within the party and are willing to hold the Democratic agenda hostage to get what they want. This was a big lament during the Obamacare discussions, when there was a majority in the Senate to support adding a government-run plan, or public option, to the program’s insurance exchanges, but it failed because it did not have the support of all 60 Democrats. At the time, progressives swallowed Obamacare as progress, even if it fell short of what they wanted.

So, they are sick of being pushed around by centrists and want to flex their muscles. The problem for progressives is that they are choosing to assert themselves when they have much smaller majorities, and less margin for error, than they did in 2009. A scenario in which the entire Biden spending agenda blows up would be easier for Manchin or Sinema to live with than it would be for progressives.

Now, it’s possible that Thursday ends up being the day when both sides determine that there is no deal to be had, and they all walk away. But if that is the case, then no agreement was ever possible to begin with.