Their populist ‘bad boy’ leaders appear to be gaining domestic support in the wake of Putin’s aggression.
Their populist ‘bad boy’ leaders appear to be gaining domestic support in the wake of Putin’s aggression.
Budapest, Hungary — As terrible as the conflict in Ukraine is, European politicians freely acknowledge it is going to have domestic political consequences.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron is likely to pad his lead in the first round of presidential elections on April 13, setting him up for a runoff victory in May.
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda has used his country’s strong support for Ukraine to blunt Western leaders’ criticism of his populist Law and Justice Party.
The European Union had slapped fines on Poland’s government over moves it viewed as limiting the media and courts. On the 2020 campaign trail, Joe Biden had included Poland in a list of nations he said had tilted away from democracy.
In Hungary, the Ukraine crisis has strengthened the political position of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who faces a national election on April 3. Orbán, like the president of Poland, is viewed as one of Europe’s populist “bad boys” by the EU and Biden. Orbán has avoided harshly criticizing Putin the way that Biden and other Western leaders have.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has bluntly rebuked Orbán for declining to go beyond his backing of EU sanctions against Russia and for refusing to allow weapons shipments to Ukraine through Hungary. Zelensky put it plainly to Orbán in a televised address last weekend: “I want to stop here and be honest, once and for all. You have to decide for yourself who you are with.”
Orbán’s response was succinct: “The answer to the question of which side Hungary is on is that Hungary is on Hungary’s side.” He pointed out that 85 percent of Hungarians use natural gas as their primary energy source, almost all of it from Russia.
Péter Márki-Zay, the candidate leading a six-party opposition coalition against Orbán, seeks to take advantage of Orbán’s cautious approach to the Ukraine conflict. Márki-Zay, the mayor of Hódmezővásárhely, was picked as the coalition’s candidate to make the argument that Orbán could be replaced by a less divisive and non-leftist figure. But he is hampered by the fact that his economic advisers are the same ones who served the Socialist-led government that plunged the country into chaos before Orbán’s Fidesz Party took over in 2010. He claims that his economic policy wouldn’t be as oriented to “crony capitalism” as Orbán’s, but otherwise the policy comes across as incoherent.
So Márki-Zay’s closing argument is to accuse Orbán of serving the Kremlin’s interests by continuing Hungary’s economic ties with Russia. Gergely Gulyás, Orbán’s chief of staff, snaps back by claiming that “if the left wing were in power today, Hungary would be at war.”
There’s no doubt that most Hungarians believe that Russia is the illegal aggressor in the war. The history of the 1956 Hungarian Uprising, which ended with Soviet tanks crushing the movement to uproot the Communist Party, is still taught in Hungarian schools. But polls show that Orbán’s realpolitik and cautious approach to Ukraine are winning him voters who prize stability. A poll last week by the Nézőpont Institute shows the Fidesz Party leading the opposition coalition by 49 percent to 41 percent. Ágoston Mráz, chief executive of Nézőpont, said Ukraine was helping Fidesz because “people want to feel secure in a crisis.”
“We believe the Ukraine war will assist the incumbent prime minister in the short term,” agreed Mujtaba Rahman, a managing director of the think tank Eurasia Group, in a new analysis. Indeed, while Orbán’s sharp-elbowed tactics in dominating Hungary’s politics rub many people the wrong way, a survey by Hungary’s Center for Fundamental Rights found that 71 percent of voters rejected charges that the government had “betrayed” its American and European allies with its Ukraine stance.
Viktor Orbán had planned to make his bid for a fourth term as prime minister a referendum on Hungary’s economy and a series of four measures that promote the traditional family. But he has proven adept at pivoting and then exercising strict discipline in promoting himself as a peacemaker and safe pair of hands in a crisis. He has even trapped his opponents into criticizing his decision to cap the price of flour, meat, sugar, and fuel. Orbán is clearly a European conservative, and not a disciple of Adam Smith or F. A. Hayek.
Should Orbán win on April 3, many domestic issues in Hungary that have been obscured by the Ukraine crisis will return to the fore. Without the pressure of an election, will he join Poland and try to reconcile with his European Union critics? Or will he be emboldened to go further in building a governing model based on populism and nationalism?
The European Union and the United States have their own considerations to make. In a new era when energy security and containing Putin’s Russia are priorities, should we keep spending so much time and energy to quarantine Poland and Hungary?