The CCP reaction to Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit is yet another attempt to assess the limits of the U.S. posture.
The CCP reaction to Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit is yet another attempt to assess the limits of the U.S. posture.
H ouse speaker Nancy Pelosi made the right decision by going to Taiwan, where she has just landed. She has been consistent for decades about her support for democratic principles and human rights in China, and in her support for Taiwan and its status. Beijing will continue to bluster, threaten military action, and find other ways to show its pique. But we should remember that, last fall, China conducted more than 100 military incursions into Taiwanese airspace as it tested the new Biden administration to see how it might differ from its predecessor. The speaker’s trip reflects her recognition that the U.S.–PRC relationship is based on testing and counter-testing. Her instincts on this are correct.
Her visit is best seen in that context. This testing dynamic goes back a long time. Occasionally, it can create opportunities to advance the relationship in a constructive way. Recall the early days of the Bush administration, when the Chinese PLA Air Force forced down a U.S. EP-3 aircraft mere weeks after Bush took office. The government in Beijing was clearly testing the new administration. President Bush responded by noting that the U.S. would do whatever it took to defend Taiwan, and by suspending military-to-military exchanges — high-level meetings of personnel — between the U.S. and China.
After putting the relationship on a firm footing by showing resolve in the face of Beijing’s provocation, the Bush administration became fixated on the War on Terror and the embroiling engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan. The PRC knew that the U.S. was distracted and began to apply pressure about Taiwan. Less than three years after his show of resolve toward Beijing, President Bush was upbraiding in public the democratically elected president of Taiwan while standing alongside PRC premier Wen Jiabao in Washington.
President Biden came into office knowing that the U.S.–PRC relationship had been reset by his predecessor. Even so, Beijing put his team to the test early. One example was the petulance shown by China foreign-ministry officials toward U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken in Anchorage in March 2021. Beijing was probing following the Trump administration, which was eager to establish a working relationship but had no compunction about pressuring Beijing. Upgraded engagement with Taiwan and trade restrictions and sanctions were the featured tools.
Biden has mostly held his ground, helped by a greater consensus between Republicans and Democrats, and among the western and Asian democracies, about the challenges the PRC presents to the world. Even Japan, which has avoided taking a position on Taiwan, has begun to shift. A senior defense official last year noted Tokyo’s readiness to “protect Taiwan, as a democratic country.” The pressure campaign is appropriate and effective.
At the same time, the speaker’s trip is an opportunity for both sides to realize that a period of constructive engagement can follow. It is not hard to sense the frustration of Xi Jinping and his ruling clique. One senses that he knows that the types of threats and the elevated rhetoric he used with President Biden about the possible consequences of the trip — while once effective — aren’t working anymore.
The problem Beijing has now is that the world no longer accepts benign interpretations of PRC behavior in the military, economic, and diplomatic realms. The heat has been turned up over the past several years. At the same time, Beijing’s own difficulties with its economy, increasing frustration among the urban, educated public, and other challenges are causing anxiety within the CCP leadership.
This combination may lead to even more histrionics from the regime, which has almost a phantom-limb-like tendency to revert to behavior that used to work. So we should expect more provocation. Hopefully, the Biden administration — bolstered by the resolve of Speaker Pelosi — will hold firm and remind Beijing and the rest of the world why Taiwan’s special status is worth defending. Xi Jinping is not the same kind of risk-taker as Vladimir Putin. If he sees firmness, he will not take an intemperate step. Democratic resolve by the rest of the world will create opportunity for both sides.