Hurdles to Democracy in Iran, and How to Overcome Them

As the United States and Israel began bombing Iran as part of Operation Epic Fury on Saturday, President Trump laid out an ambitious vision. In a phone interview with the Washington Post, he said, “All I want is freedom for the people,” underscoring that the ultimate aim is not merely deterrence or retaliation, but a political transformation in Tehran. He has spoken in terms that leave little doubt: The desired end state is a change of regime — one that produces a democratic government guaranteeing liberty to the Iranian people.

That is an extraordinarily high bar for a military operation. History offers no clear precedent of air strikes alone ushering in a stable democracy in a deeply entrenched authoritarian state. When force has toppled regimes, the aftermath has more often yielded disorder, civil conflict, or a new form of authoritarian rule. In Iran’s case, the structural conditions make democracy perhaps the least likely outcome of a bombing campaign. The death of its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, alone will not simply dissolve the Islamic Republic, a layered system with clerical authority, parallel security institutions, and a deeply embedded Revolutionary Guard — though strikes on dozens of other senior figures certainly help toward that end.

About the Author

Jianli Yang

Jianli Yang is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Center for the National Interest and a columnist for National Review.

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As the United States and Israel began bombing Iran as part of Operation Epic Fury on Saturday, President Trump laid out an ambitious vision. In a phone interview with the Washington Post, he said, “All I want is freedom for the people,” underscoring that the ultimate aim is not merely deterrence or retaliation, but a political transformation in Tehran. He has spoken in terms that leave little doubt: The desired end state is a change of regime — one that produces a democratic government guaranteeing liberty to the Iranian people.

That is an extraordinarily high bar for a military operation. History offers no clear precedent of air strikes alone ushering in a stable democracy in a deeply entrenched authoritarian state. When force has toppled regimes, the aftermath has more often yielded disorder, civil conflict, or a new form of authoritarian rule. In Iran’s case, the structural conditions make democracy perhaps the least likely outcome of a bombing campaign. The death of its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, alone will not simply dissolve the Islamic Republic, a layered system with clerical authority, parallel security institutions, and a deeply embedded Revolutionary Guard — though strikes on dozens of other senior figures certainly help toward that end.