Democrats’ Midterm Gains Could Trigger National Popular Vote Compact Before 2028

Key Takeaways

Democrats’ compact could sideline the Electoral College without a constitutional amendment, fundamentally changing presidential elections.

The blue wave washed over a slew of state legislative chambers and six new governorships. Next year, a majority of Americans will live in a state with a Democratic governing trifecta. One of the biggest dangers of Democrats’ new political clout is that they will now push to override the and effectively force the country into a nationwide presidential popular voting system as early as 2028.

Their vehicle is called the , an agreement among states to award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, no matter which candidate carries each state. The compact was born after former President George W. Bush’s narrow Electoral College victory in 2000, and it was turbocharged following Donald Trump’s 2016 win despite his losing the popular vote. The District of Columbia and 18 states have joined, accounting for 222 electoral votes.

About the Author

John Fund

John Fund is National Review’s national-affairs reporter.

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Key Takeaways

Democrats’ compact could sideline the Electoral College without a constitutional amendment, fundamentally changing presidential elections.
The compact’s constitutionality remains unresolved, setting up a potentially consequential Supreme Court showdown.
A nationwide popular vote risks sprawling recount battles and diminished state influence.

The blue wave washed over a slew of state legislative chambers and six new governorships. Next year, a majority of Americans will live in a state with a Democratic governing trifecta. One of the biggest dangers of Democrats’ new political clout is that they will now push to override the and effectively force the country into a nationwide presidential popular voting system as early as 2028.

Their vehicle is called the , an agreement among states to award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, no matter which candidate carries each state. The compact was born after former President George W. Bush’s narrow Electoral College victory in 2000, and it was turbocharged following Donald Trump’s 2016 win despite his losing the popular vote. The District of Columbia and 18 states have joined, accounting for 222 electoral votes.