All the talk about candidates often obscures the simple fact that elections are mainly a battle between parties. Recent shifts in partisan voter identification suggest Republicans may be in a better position than they have been for years.
It may surprise readers to learn that the GOP has faced an often-significant disadvantage in baseline support despite frequently winning national elections. Democrats surged into the lead after the Depression and increased it throughout the 1950s and 1960s. Barry Goldwater’s landslide defeat in 1964 could have been predicted simply by looking at the Democrats’ 26-point lead in partisan ID.
Comments