Russian Defeat in Ukraine Would Help the West in Middle East and Asia

The war in Ukraine has become a central test of American power. Its outcome will determine NATO’s credibility, Europe’s security, and China’s calculations regarding Taiwan. President Trump, in a recent post on Truth Social, said, “We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them.” The phrasing was crude, but it carried an important admission: NATO remains an American-led alliance, and U.S. support for Ukraine is not peripheral to that system — it is central to its preservation.

The struggle in Ukraine does not end at Europe’s borders. Its outcome shapes the balance of power in the Middle East and Asia. A Russian breakthrough would sap Europe’s strength and give Beijing room to expand its influence. China is already exploiting the distraction to coordinate more closely with Moscow, deepen energy and defense ties with Iran, and press its advantage in Asia. The war also sustains Iran and North Korea, whose drones and artillery feed directly into Russia’s campaign. Shipments from Tehran, shells from Pyongyang, and oil revenues from Beijing all reinforce the anti-U.S. network, gaining momentum from Moscow’s defiance.

About the Author

Zineb Riboua

Zineb Riboua is a research fellow and program manager of Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East.

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The war in Ukraine has become a central test of American power. Its outcome will determine NATO’s credibility, Europe’s security, and China’s calculations regarding Taiwan. President Trump, in a recent post on Truth Social, said, “We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them.” The phrasing was crude, but it carried an important admission: NATO remains an American-led alliance, and U.S. support for Ukraine is not peripheral to that system — it is central to its preservation.

The struggle in Ukraine does not end at Europe’s borders. Its outcome shapes the balance of power in the Middle East and Asia. A Russian breakthrough would sap Europe’s strength and give Beijing room to expand its influence. China is already exploiting the distraction to coordinate more closely with Moscow, deepen energy and defense ties with Iran, and press its advantage in Asia. The war also sustains Iran and North Korea, whose drones and artillery feed directly into Russia’s campaign. Shipments from Tehran, shells from Pyongyang, and oil revenues from Beijing all reinforce the anti-U.S. network, gaining momentum from Moscow’s defiance.