Alabama’s Republican primary race to replace the retiring Richard Shelby has, thus far, garnered only modest national attention. Alabama is a safe Republican state in all but the most unusual of circumstances. Republicans have won double-digit victories in Alabama in the last six presidential elections and the last eight regular Senate elections. Roy Moore’s loss to Doug Jones in the December 2017 special Senate election required a perfect storm, including a souring national environment, a uniquely bad Republican candidate with decades of personal and political baggage, a divided state Republican Party, a credible Democrat, and a low-turnout special election.
2022 promises to be a good Republican year, which gives Alabama Republican voters a luxury: So long as they don’t pick a Roy Moore, they can simply focus on choosing the candidate who would best represent them in the Senate. The candidate is then likely to hold the office for quite some time. Shelby, the retiring incumbent, is 87 years old and has been in office since 1987, back when he was a Democrat.
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