Abortion Is a Convenient Scapegoat for MAGA’s Political Weaknesses

If there’s one thing on which Democrats and pro-Trump Republicans alike can agree, it’s that the GOP’s spate of electoral failures is attributable to one factor above all: abortion.

“Support for abortion cuts across party lines, performing significantly better at the ballot box than Biden and other Democrats,” Politico’s reporters observed in the wake of a disappointing showing for the GOP in 2023’s off-year elections. With Florida governor Ron DeSantis and his down-ballot coattails being the notable exception, the Republican Party’s underperformance in the 2022 midterms was written off as blowback from the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs. “Nationally, nearly half (47%) of all voters say the Court’s decision had a major impact on which candidates they supported in this election, including almost two-thirds (64%) of those who voted for Democratic House candidates,” a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis reported. The issue of abortion access has even been credited with delivering to Democrats a variety of victories in special elections across the country.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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If there’s one thing on which Democrats and pro-Trump Republicans alike can agree, it’s that the GOP’s spate of electoral failures is attributable to one factor above all: abortion.

“Support for abortion cuts across party lines, performing significantly better at the ballot box than Biden and other Democrats,” Politico’s reporters observed in the wake of a disappointing showing for the GOP in 2023’s off-year elections. With Florida governor Ron DeSantis and his down-ballot coattails being the notable exception, the Republican Party’s underperformance in the 2022 midterms was written off as blowback from the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs. “Nationally, nearly half (47%) of all voters say the Court’s decision had a major impact on which candidates they supported in this election, including almost two-thirds (64%) of those who voted for Democratic House candidates,” a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis reported. The issue of abortion access has even been credited with delivering to Democrats a variety of victories in special elections across the country.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.