On the eve of an election that’s expected to be a close-run thing, there’s a lot of media speculation that it might end in tears with a confused result leading to one side or the other seizing power — how shall I put it? — partly constitutionally. Because most of those doing the speculating are in the commentariat and mainstream media, the villain in the majority of speculations is inevitably President Trump. It’s predicted that he will refuse to leave the White House despite being defeated and that the Secret Service or the military will have to drag him out. That would presumably happen on Inauguration Day, disrupting the ceremony, since Trump has a constitutional right to remain there until then. Where he would be dragged to is an interesting question because some of the scenarios include gleeful forecasts of the arrest and trial of the Trump criminal family and conspirators. It should all be very exciting.
I should say for starters that I don’t believe a word of it. If Trump is defeated, he will hand over power and office on Inauguration Day and, in all probability, take a vacation before deciding whether to fight to continue leading the GOP in the Biden-Harris interregnum. That’s because the United States is a constitutional republic whose representatives, officers, and magistrates would refuse to follow the orders of an illegitimate usurper and remove him promptly from the premises. The president himself is well aware of this and has too strong a sense of theater and his own dignity not to depart constitutionally and in high style. That’s been my opinion since these speculations began, and I was encouraged to find that it was shared by a former senior administration official, Michael Anton, when I interviewed him in a Danube Dialogue podcast about his book, The Stakes, on the election.
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