In 1998, Californians narrowly approved Proposition 10, a 50-cent per-pack tobacco tax to finance early-childhood health and education programs. Not that cigarettes had anything to do with early childhood heath and education; rather, proponents of the law baldly asserted the government’s prerogative to tax a supposedly evil product in order to fund a supposedly good government program.

Proposition 10 created the First 5 California Children and Families Commission. Its broad agenda of good works–dubbed “First 5″ for the first five years of a child’s life–are administered through each of California’s 58 counties. So far, more than $4 billion has been raised, and much of it has been spent.

The largest of California’s counties is Los Angeles County, and the man who got himself appointed head of L.A.’s First 5 commission is actor-producer Rob Reiner, the primary sponsor of Proposition 10. This made him an immediate player in state politics, and rumors abounded that Reiner himself would seek higher office.

He doesn’t seem interested, though, and why would he be? As the celebrity lead of an obscure nonprofit with access to nine-figure budgets, Reiner wielded more power with less accountability than any politician could.

And yet, in an overreach of cosmic proportions, Reiner may have taken a fail-safe public posture–using evil tobacco money to finance sundry services for kids in need–and made a hash of it. Political careers don’t usually turn on plans for preschool, but who ever said California was usual?

Reiner is currently advancing a new initiative, Proposition 82, on this year’s June ballot, complete with mawkish title, “Preschool for All.” This would provide universal preschool for all California children, financed by a tax on the state’s upper-income earners.

Proposition 82 leads in many early statewide polls, but that could all change, thanks to two things that can cripple any campaign–a financial scandal and a plausible alternative.

First the controversy: From November to January, First 5 spent $27 million on a television ad campaign that, instead of encouraging expectant mothers to seek prenatal care, or advising parents to read to their young children, extolled the virtues and benefits of–guess what?–children attending preschool.

Curiously, this campaign coincided with Proposition 82’s signature-gathering period. Also drawing attention is the fact that advertising and public relations contracts totaling $230 million were given to Reiner’s professional and political allies.

Rob Reiner’s brainchild commission spending public money on television commercials to promote the rationale behind his next big campaign–the obvious appearance of a conflict of interest was too much for the state’s moribund political and media classes to ignore.

The ensuing outcry resulted in Reiner taking a leave of absence from his First 5 chairmanship, with major Democrat supporters rescinding their endorsements of Proposition 82 and bipartisan calls in the state legislature for an investigation.

Late last month, Reiner stepped down for good, a potentially embarrassing fall cushioned by Schwarzenegger himself with media manipulation more typical of the entertainment industry. In his resignation letter to Schwarzenegger, Reiner wrote, “When you and I spoke over the weekend we agreed that we cannot let personal political attacks get in the way of doing the very best we can for California’s children.”

This is the classic celebrity break-up, where both sides publicly pledge their continued mutual respect and affection, while asking that the media respect their privacy. The pretense, however, is too obvious, and the controversy is not going away.

Many believe Arnold’s air cover on Reiner’s behalf exemplifies his habitual naiveté and insistence he can still win over his political opponents. One Democrat legislator he has courted recently recounted how she informed Schwarzenegger she would not endorse his re-election. “Many of us still view ourselves as partisans and we have partisan responsibilities. That’s this business.”

Could Vito Corleone have said it any better?

The news for Reiner gets worse. A UC Berkeley think tank with impeccable liberal credentials recently warned that Proposition 82 could force existing schools to close as well as give most of its money to wealthy parents, essentially picking up the tab for their children’s preschool.

In addition, the latest Public Policy Institute of California poll finds the initiative holding an 11-point lead, an alarmingly weak position at this point in the campaign.

All of this opens the door to a plausible alternative scenario, and it could have far-reaching impacts in this state and even the U.S. Congress.

California’s Kern County is a high desert region north of Los Angeles, a rural and agricultural region anchored by its largest city, Bakersfield, home to two of the state’s most interesting Republican elected officials: outgoing Rep. Bill Thomas, the powerful chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, and his certain successor in Congress, Assembly Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Perhaps in anticipation of the expected policy and political onslaught of Reiner’s initiative, Kern County’s schools and businesses collaborated to form its “Ready to Start” program, a school readiness plan they hope will provide to all of California a cost-effective and result-oriented alternative to simply having the state collect another mountain of cash from a defenseless special interest and dole it out to the politically connected.

Initially, there is much to prefer about “Ready to Start.” Most notably, Reiner’s “Preschool for All” is a 180-day model, requiring new school construction and no set standards for curriculum, instruction methods or measurements of assessment, while “Ready to Start” claims it can do its work in as little as five weeks, using existing school facilities and equipment, at a cost of $250 to $350 per student.

McCarthy is expected to champion the alternative idea throughout his campaign and in Congress. If successful, perhaps it can animate a positive, conservative approach to large government programs and undermine widespread public assumptions about more spending, more often, with no end in sight.

As for the future, it appears Reiner and his supporters will continue their devoted nonprofit work on behalf of the children. After all, there’s a lot of money in it.

–Jonathan Wilcox is a former speechwriter for Governor Pete Wilson and an adjunct professor at USC’s Annenberg School for Communication..