America Has the Upper Hand in Iran Negotiations

For several days, Donald Trump has warned that Iran would face a rain of destruction unlike anything it has experienced so far unless it agreed to a cease-fire and voluntarily withdrew its threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Those threats grew increasingly unhinged as the deadline approached, culminating in a prodigious freakout among his critics, some of whom concluded that America would lose more than it would gain from such a course of action. But when Iran agreed at the last minute to a cease-fire and a relaxation of tensions in the strait, that, too, was cast as an unmitigated strategic loss for the United States.

Neat trick! Heads, Iran wins. Tails, Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu lose.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.

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For several days, Donald Trump has warned that Iran would face a rain of destruction unlike anything it has experienced so far unless it agreed to a cease-fire and voluntarily withdrew its threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Those threats grew increasingly unhinged as the deadline approached, culminating in a prodigious freakout among his critics, some of whom concluded that America would lose more than it would gain from such a course of action. But when Iran agreed at the last minute to a cease-fire and a relaxation of tensions in the strait, that, too, was cast as an unmitigated strategic loss for the United States.

Neat trick! Heads, Iran wins. Tails, Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu lose.

About the Author

Noah Rothman

Noah Rothman is a senior writer at National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence, was published by Hachette in May 2026.