Biden Breaking Anti-Populist Coalition, Trump Has Stopped Provoking

There is a highly motivated slice of voters whom you could describe as the “anti-populists.” In previous polls by the New York Times and Siena College, you could see a swath of them in the Republican Party. They identified as strongly anti-MAGA and strongly opposed to Trump. They rated support for arming Ukraine a major priority. These voters have analogues in the Democratic coalition as well. They tend to be high earners and have college degrees. They are secular and don’t think of themselves as hostile to religion, but they are turned off by emotional excess around the topic. In general, they trust the science. Or at least they trust it more than they trust Joe Rogan or “the internet.” They are pro-college, pro-Israel, pro-moderation. They are liberal in outlook but not doggedly libertarian. They are ferociously guarding the post–Cold War consensus about globalization. Money, people, and goods flowing freely over borders? They love it. And they don’t mind the kludges that make the system work as it does.

Anti-populists were almost fully united against Trump in 2020. They hated that the then-president talked about inserting light into human bodies to stop the coronavirus. They hated the tweets. They hated the bragging about who has a bigger nuclear button. They hated the idea that the American president seemed to want to get along with Vladimir Putin. And they hated the trade war, if they were conscious of it at all. Many of them have remained implacably hostile to the Republican Party and resent it for appointing justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. Not that they are “shout your abortion” types, either. The just preferred a settlement in which abortion was available, and you didn’t think about it unless circumstances forced you to do so.

About the Author

Michael Brendan Dougherty

Michael Brendan Dougherty is a senior writer at National Review Online.

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There is a highly motivated slice of voters whom you could describe as the “anti-populists.” In previous polls by the New York Times and Siena College, you could see a swath of them in the Republican Party. They identified as strongly anti-MAGA and strongly opposed to Trump. They rated support for arming Ukraine a major priority. These voters have analogues in the Democratic coalition as well. They tend to be high earners and have college degrees. They are secular and don’t think of themselves as hostile to religion, but they are turned off by emotional excess around the topic. In general, they trust the science. Or at least they trust it more than they trust Joe Rogan or “the internet.” They are pro-college, pro-Israel, pro-moderation. They are liberal in outlook but not doggedly libertarian. They are ferociously guarding the post–Cold War consensus about globalization. Money, people, and goods flowing freely over borders? They love it. And they don’t mind the kludges that make the system work as it does.

Anti-populists were almost fully united against Trump in 2020. They hated that the then-president talked about inserting light into human bodies to stop the coronavirus. They hated the tweets. They hated the bragging about who has a bigger nuclear button. They hated the idea that the American president seemed to want to get along with Vladimir Putin. And they hated the trade war, if they were conscious of it at all. Many of them have remained implacably hostile to the Republican Party and resent it for appointing justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. Not that they are “shout your abortion” types, either. The just preferred a settlement in which abortion was available, and you didn’t think about it unless circumstances forced you to do so.