There is a time-honored tradition in American politicsโa gentlemenโs agreement of sorts: Former presidents do not openly criticize current presidents, particularly on sensitive foreign-policy matters. Ex-presidents know intimately the difficulty of the job; they understand how much more burdensome the job can become when a former president publicly attacks a current presidentโs performance. Eisenhower, for example, held back his anger at John F. Kennedyโs handling of the Bay of Pigs invasion until the two met privately. George H. W. Bush did all he could to refrain from rebuking Bill Clinton during the tawdry 1990s.
Perhaps predictably, Bill Clintonโwho has such little regard for proprietyโhas trashed this presidential tradition. At a time when the sitting president is practically begging for fair coverage of Iraqโs reconstruction and the war on terror generally, Bill Clinton has stepped to the cameras to question George W. Bushโs very understanding of the worldโs present dangers.
In remarks made during a luncheon sponsored by the History Channel, Bill Clinton took a stab at his successor, claiming that, before Bush took office, he warned the incoming president about the threat posed by Osama bin Laden.
Reuters reported the former president as saying, โIn his campaign, Bush had said he thought the biggest security issue was Iraq and a national missile defense. I told him that in my opinion, the biggest security problem was Osama bin Laden.โ Clinton went on to list what he claimed were his presidential priorities: โI would have started with India and Pakistan, then North Korea, and then Iraq after that.โ He said that he โthought Iraq was a lower order problem than al Qaeda.โ
There is no way to know exactly what Clinton said to Bush behind closed doors. Fortunately, Clintonโs remarks on security issues throughout his term are a matter of public record. We can thus glimpse into the days of yore and see how well Clintonโs past statements match his supposed priorities. Such comparison is a kind of historical polygraph.
Enter the Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents. This is the official public collection of all presidential papersโevery speech, statement, interview, appointment, message to Congress, press conference, and so on. By employing relevant key-word searchesโthe record from the Clinton years is available onlineโwe can gain perspective on Clintonโs true national-security purview.
Admittedly, this is not a flawless research design. For instance, if a search on the word โSaddamโ reveals 200 hits, this does not guarantee that the president uttered the word โSaddamโ 200 times. Some of those references to Saddam may appear in the title or tagline of a speech or statement. Of course, when comparing the number of times a president mentioned certain namesโsuch as, say, โSaddamโ and โOsamaโโthis limitation applies to both names, and any errors usually even out.
On the other hand, each keyword โhitโ tallied by the search engine refers only to a single document containing the word. In actuality, the word may be stated dozens of times within each document. Therefore, 200 document hits on โSaddamโ (for example) may fall well below the total number of times a president mentioned Saddam Hussein.
At any rate, the total number of hits can be fairly effective in signaling how much a president and his administration focused on a particular person or subject; it can reflect priorities quite effectively.
We performed several searches on the Clinton presidency, and the results are very interesting. Only 23 of his statements during his eight-year presidency mention bin Ladenโdespite the fact that the 1993 bin Laden-backed bombing of the World Trade Center took place during Clintonโs first year in office. Even more startling is the fact that al Qaeda was mentioned in only six documents. (Our search included all spelling variants of the terrorist organizationโs name.)
What about the states that Clinton mentioned? India was mentioned by Clinton in 342 documents and Pakistan in 252. Next on his security-threats-to-neutralize list was North Korea, which produced 299 hits. And rounding out the bottom of Clintonโs to-do list was Iraq. Ironically, Clinton singled out Iraq in 490 separate presidential statementsโusually with more than one mention of Iraq in each statement. The name โSaddam Husseinโ showed up 190 times. So Saddam Husseinโs Iraq was mentioned 680 times in total, compared with 29 times for Osamaโs al Qaeda.
Our probe into the presidential archives didnโt end there. Democrats who claim that Bush exaggerated the threat posed by Saddamโs pursuit of โweapons of mass destructionโ will be interested to know that the term โweapons of mass destructionโ turned up 533 times among Bill Clintonโs Iraq documents.
All of this evidence suggests that when Clinton recently offered his supposed list of priorities to Bush, he had them reversed. If a presidentโs priorities are reflected in his public words, then Clinton quite arguably considered Saddamโs Iraq a bigger priority than Osamaโs al Qaeda.
To put it baldly, Osama wasnโt even on Clintonโs radar screen. Interestingly, even a former White House internโs name eclipsed bin Ladenโs: A search on โLewinskyโ garnered 25 hits.
To put this data in perspective, consider that, on average, Clinton statements mentioning bin Laden occurred once every 127 days, whereas Iraq popped up every 6 days of his presidency, and those elusive โweapons of mass destructionโ appeared every 5.5 days.
Either Clintonโs claim to have warned Bush about bin Laden is a shameless component Clintonโs ongoing campaign to remove the stain from his tarnished legacy, or it is political propaganda designed to harm George W. Bush. Whatever the motivation, Bill Clinton has again misrepresented reality. And once again, whether through the modern miracle of DNA testing or the present-day sophistication of a computer search engine, technology has checked him.
โPaul Kengor, a professor of political science at Grove City College and a visiting fellow with the Hoover Institution, is the author of the forthcoming book God and Ronald Reagan. Cory Shreckengost is a policy analyst at the Shenango Institute for Public Policy and an associated scholar with the Susquehanna Valley Center for Public Policy.






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