Breaking Slowly in the Governors’ Races

Yesterday, I updated my look at the Senate races. You can go back there to read my explanation of my method, which I won’t repeat here. On tap today: the governors. I last looked at the gubernatorial campaigns on September 21, but I’m using September 15 as my baseline to measure shifts since mid-September.

The picture remains grim, although many races are still contested, and the worst Republican losses are apt to be concentrated in swing states that currently have Democratic governors — places such as Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota where a better environment might have put Republicans in position for pickups. One state (Kansas) does still look as if it will flip to the GOP, and a second (Oregon) looks competitive — for now. But Republican-held governorships are effectively gone in Alaska and Iowa and in hot water in a broad array of other states: Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, maybe Florida, Nebraska, and Vermont, and (if you believe the one poll, which I don’t) Arkansas. Given the current environment, it also seems high time for somebody to poll South Carolina, one of seven states without current polling.

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Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

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Yesterday, I updated my look at the Senate races. You can go back there to read my explanation of my method, which I won’t repeat here. On tap today: the governors. I last looked at the gubernatorial campaigns on September 21, but I’m using September 15 as my baseline to measure shifts since mid-September.

The picture remains grim, although many races are still contested, and the worst Republican losses are apt to be concentrated in swing states that currently have Democratic governors — places such as Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota where a better environment might have put Republicans in position for pickups. One state (Kansas) does still look as if it will flip to the GOP, and a second (Oregon) looks competitive — for now. But Republican-held governorships are effectively gone in Alaska and Iowa and in hot water in a broad array of other states: Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, maybe Florida, Nebraska, and Vermont, and (if you believe the one poll, which I don’t) Arkansas. Given the current environment, it also seems high time for somebody to poll South Carolina, one of seven states without current polling.