Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has altered the relationship between Russia and China. While Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin already were on a path of greater cooperation and mutual leadership of the autocratic, authoritarian world, as an offset to U.S.-led democratic capitalism, the Ukraine war has shifted the relationship toward Chinese dominance. This matters because, despite Russia’s relative dependence on China, China faces significant economic decline. Every component of China’s GDP is under sustained, structural pressure.
The Ukraine conflict is accelerating three of China’s long-term initiatives to contest its decline: reducing the cost of its manufactured goods by getting its exports to market more cheaply and quickly; seeking a stable, long-term supply of low-cost energy, especially oil and natural gas; and reversing and resolving the historic territorial deprivations it faced in its “century of humiliation.” Let’s consider each of these objectives in turn.
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