Davos, Switzerland

Welcome to Part III of these notes from Davos — from the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum. For our first two installments, go here and here. Shall we just get going, without many prelims, about the beauty of the Alps, the habits of the jet set, and so on? Okay.

The prime minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is meeting with a group of journos. I can’t help making a crack, to myself, when I see a reporter from Reuters — and I will inflict it on you: I think, “That’s nice: Middle Eastern leaders meeting with their core constituents and supporters.”

And this leads me to another point, about Middle Eastern press delegations and their coverage of Middle Eastern leaders: I have observed them quite a bit over the years — Middle Eastern journalists at work. And they seem to me, not so much journalists, in my understanding of journalists, as members of the team: members of the governmental team.

Kind of like our MSM and Obama?

Anyway, enough yuk-yuk. Erdogan speaks to us through an interpreter — a very adept one, from all appearances — though he seems to understand English. I can tell by the way he looks when he listens to questions (all of which are in English).

He speaks about Turkey’s role as mediator between Israel and Syria. He recounts recent talks — pre-Gaza-war talks — with Olmert: for example, about the release of the Israeli soldier in the hands of Hamas. The other side asked for the release of many of their own. And Olmert’s response, according to Erdogan, was, “But that would be bad for Mahmoud Abbas,” the leader of Fatah Palestinians.

Erdogan continues (and I will paraphrase): “We said, ‘But you are holding many women and children. Why not arrange to release those?’ Olmert said he would get back to us. And while we were waiting for the reply, we were faced with the Gaza situation” — the new war. “We were saddened,” says Erdogan, adding that Israel had shown a “lack of respect” for Turkey and for the cause of peace.

There is no indication that Hamas’s breaking of the ceasefire caused any sadness or offense.

In the course of his remarks, Erdogan says, “If you want democratization in the Middle East, you have to show respect for elections, which the world has not done in the case of Palestine.” He means (if I may interpret), “Hamas won, get over it” (and, of course, matters are not so simple). He later observes, “People are quick to paint me or paint Turkey as anti-Semitic. That is an injustice. Anti-Semitism is a crime against humanity. I have said it ever since I took office, and I said it before.”

It occurs to me: I wonder how Erdogan defines “anti-Semitism.” Some people get cute with it, you know.

He continues, “What I have done is criticize the policies of the Israeli government. How can one explain the death of 1,300 civilians — men, women, and children — and the wounding of more than 6,000 others?” (Well, I can explain it: You might start with the Hamas practice of placing fighters and weapons in neighborhoods, mosques, schools, hospitals, and so on.) “How will infrastructure be compensated for in Gaza?”

Further, “I was told that there were rockets being sent into Israel. Then I inquired about resulting deaths” — and there were few or none. I don’t quite catch him on this. But Erdogan’s point, which he makes forcefully, is clear: The Israelis acted in a grossly “disproportionate” manner. They had few casualties, and they caused a great many, in their offensive. Erdogan says, “I saw ten wounded Palestinians who had been brought to Turkey — and that told me all I needed to know about what was taking place in Gaza.”

Asked about the dispatch of George Mitchell to the Middle East, and how this might affect the Turkish role, Erdogan says, “Better than any Westerner can, we speak the language of the Middle East.” He also expresses the wish that President Obama “redefine ‘terror’ and ‘terrorist organizations’ in the Middle East” — and implement new policies based on those redefinitions. He does not specify, but I have a feeling he means: “Hezbollah, Hamas, and the like are kosher.”

He then suggests that the upcoming Israeli elections were a cause of the Gaza operation — a motive for it. And if that is true, he says, “the cost was too high” — too high to justify a maneuvering for political advantage. The facial expressions and body language of his team around him say: “Of course that was the reason.”

Toward the end of our discussion, he is asked about conspiracies against him and possible coups d’état. And he makes what I believe is the first charming and endearing remark I’ve ever heard from him: “We have a saying in Turkey: ‘If you’re involved in a dance’” — a certain folk dance — “‘then you inevitably have to sweat it out.’ And politics is like that. If you’re involved in politics, you understand that up front.”

‐Sometime after our session, a journalist intimately familiar with the region has a very interesting comment to make. He says that, when Turkey suffers terror attacks from northern Iraq (Kurdish separatists) — even when there are no deaths — the Turkish government goes in hard. And Erdogan would object to Israel’s doing the same?

‐In the Congress Center, on center stage, it’s Bill Clinton time. He is “in conversation” with Forum father Klaus Schwab. As I enter the auditorium, a man passes me, going out. He is saying to his friend, “He’s yesterday’s news. I would rather listen to his wife.” But many are still keen to listen to Bill.

He’s in good form — he looks good, ready for any kind of action. And he talks very, very well. Clever guy, Clinton. And the cylinders are really firing today. Incidentally, he still bites his lower lip — just as his mimics do. This is not a habit invented or even much exaggerated by someone else.

Schwab asks him, “What led us to the present situation” — the current financial crisis? And Clinton, referring to an earlier speech by Wen Jiabao, says, “The Chinese premier is right: It all started in the United States.” And he goes on to explain, plausibly.

He also says that there will be “great reluctance” to make our mistakes again. (One would think.) And “when we get through this, we’ll have a 21st-century system that does things the old-fashioned way. We will go back to a lot more traditional finance. People will still make money” — but times won’t be like they were. “And that will be a good thing.”

Clinton further says something I regard as quite true: Our financial problems “are at one level mind-numbing and complex, and at another level very simple.” And “America has to lead the way out” of the mess, because the mess “started there” — in America. When will it be over? Clinton says he is asked that often. “And I say, ‘3:15 p.m., November 9, 2009.’ No, there’s no way to say when it will be over.”

He talks about Republican opposition to President Obama’s stimulus package. He doesn’t like Republicans at all, Clinton. Can you blame him? No. Still, there’s something unseemly about a former president who loves to knock the other party while abroad. Naturally, the Davos crowd eats it up. “The Republicans always want to have more tax cuts and less spending,” says Clinton, “even though all the analysis” — all the analysis! — “shows that you get more growth and more jobs out of investment.”

Investment? Does he mean more federal spending? It seems he does.

About Vladimir Putin’s speech from this Davos stage, he says, “I was glad to hear the prime minister come out for free enterprise, and I hope it works out for him.” Laughs from the audience.

A little later: “Other countries have to finance our recovery” — meaning the American recovery — “but it’s good for them, because we can’t buy exports until we grow again.” Then Clinton goes after President Bush: It is “the policy of the last eight years,” he says, that is responsible for what has happened — these financial and economic woes. Sure.

There is no mention whatsoever of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, those Democratic playgrounds.

But this is considerably more sensible: “Bank lending will be more important to the recovery of America,” says Clinton, “and therefore to the recovery of the world, than all this stimulus spending.”

He does not view recent governmental moves as “the state taking over the economy. Central banks came into existence because of market failures, and the need to manage debt and float debt. Just look at the whole 300-year history of them. What we are experiencing now is — I wouldn’t say normal. But it is not without precedent, and it’s pretty clear what has to be done.”

He then gives a sermon on the interdependence of peoples and nations — not incorrect, but a little cloying. And he says, “A lot of the modern world has been good, or you couldn’t afford to be here, in spite of everything. Even if you’ve lost a lot of money, look at all of us — we’ve showed up. They were parking planes as far away as Milan” — planes of people bound for Davos. “We’ve all done pretty well in this interdependent world.” But “we have to realize that the unsustainability of it, because of global warming, is a fact of life.”

Because of global warming? Oh, yes. Let me tell you, from years of attendance at Davos, that President Clinton is at least as hot on global warming as his vice president, Gore.

Klaus Schwab asks Clinton, “What is your biggest worry? What do you feel most emotional about at the moment?” Clinton says that he has three worries.

No. 1: “I worry that, because so much wealth has been lost, the impulse of the wealthiest to help the poorest among us will be gone. But we haven’t repealed the laws of interdependence.” No. 2: The absence of “health systems” in developing countries, “especially in rural areas.” You can raise all the money in the world for drugs, but how are you going to deliver them? And No. 3: Global warming — specifically, “I worry that we have too many people who think that the only way to reduce emissions is to slow economic growth. We will never get agreement at Copenhagen until we have the sense that there are economically beneficial ways to dramatically change the energy patterns of the world.”

And “I’ll make you a prediction” — the prediction, in a nutshell, is this: “Green jobs” will be huge in leading us out of our current economic woes.

So, “those are the things I obsess on,” says Clinton. As in Davoses past, he does not mention terror, Islamofascism, nuclear proliferation, and the like. Curious.

Schwab asks an interesting question: “What is your advice for politicians?” Clinton answers, “This is not a time for denial or delay. Do something that makes sense. Give people confidence by showing confidence, by acting in a way that is consistent with your long-term objectives.”

Another question from Schwab: “What is your advice for businesspeople?” “This is a crisis of finance and asset devaluation. If you are producing a product or a service that you know will be in demand in the 21st century, then it will come out all right if you can figure out how to get through the storm.”

Advice to NGOs? “A lot of us lost money because our wealthy donors could no longer support us.” Clinton says “us,” because he is thinking of his Clinton Global Initiative. He is an NGO, I suppose. “We’re going to have to use the Internet and other means of mass communication to get more citizens, at modest levels, to be our financial base. We’re going to have to redefine 21st-century citizenship so that even people of modest means think they ought to give a little money or a little time to the nongovernmental movement. The restructuring will be good for us.”

By the way, I have never heard that term “nongovernmental movement.”

And some advice “for all of us”: “Life should never have any guarantees. This is bracing,” this financial crisis, “but if we do this right, when we come out of it, we’ll have a sounder, more decent economy, and a better awareness of what not to do as well as what to do. And we have to get through it together. I think it’s a mistake to bet against people who are free to make good choices. You should still bet on the future. Don’t be a pessimist — it’s just an excuse not to do anything.

“Fear is paralytic. Avoid fear, and just think. Put one foot in front of the other. I’ve been in plenty of tight spots myself [laughs and titters in the hall], and I think that keeping going is good strategy. Just keep going. Don’t give up.” And “it’s still a good time to be alive.”

Friends, as you may know, I am not Bill Clinton’s biggest fan. I have written strongly against him for many years. I did not admire his “keeping going” during the Lewinsky scandal. But I must tell you: I was actually moved by what he said here.

‐Lunch is a pretty starry affair: It is a Philanthropy Roundtable that includes Clinton, Tony Blair, Bill Gates, Muhammad Yunus, and Richard Branson — Sir Richard Branson, I should say. The host, Victor Pinchuk, introduces Blair, calling him “the most charismatic European leader” (if I have heard him correctly). Blair says, “First of all, thank you for calling me a European.” Many laughs, a charming remark.

But I think later: I, personally, would rather be a Briton than a European. For that matter, I would rather be a Frenchman, an Italian, etc., than a European.

But those are questions for another time. Blair is a piece of work — an extraordinary politician. He is full of charm, humor, personality, naturalness, fluidity. No wonder he went so far. In my experience, he always speaks fervently, even “evangelically,” as many people have noted. This can be a little wearing, but it can also be admirable.

He talks about the current dour mood, owing to financial and economic ills. But the general mood “should not diminish our natural optimism, or dampen our desire to use philanthropy” to accomplish good in the world. In the presence of Tony Blair, you may feel a bit churlish for not being an optimist.

He speaks for a perfect amount of time — not too long — and ends gracefully. A pro — a pro’s pro (on a purely political level).

Then Bill Clinton speaks, saying, “I’ll be brief: This is too good a panel to delay.” And, believe it or not, he is true to his word: He is quite brief. He repeats some of what he said on the Congress Center stage. For instance, he says, “We’ve got planes to Davos parked as far away as Milan. So there are those among us who aren’t starving. Those of us who can give more at this time, should. Those of us who can do less should give what we can.”

And more global warming: “Anyone who thinks we can ignore climate change because times are tough” is sadly mistaken.

Bill Gates, when it is his turn, says, “I’m not all that negative. Maybe it’s not my nature to be negative.” And “I’m amazed at how the causes of the poor — health, agriculture — are more visible today than they were ten years ago, or even five years ago.” Governments are not cutting their aid to the Third World, Gates says — except for Italy, which he “calls out.”

A word about Sir Richard? I’ll make it a superficial one: If you called Central Casting for the perfect playboy — the perfect rich, entrepreneurial, go-getting, life-lovin’ playboy — you would get, precisely, Richard Branson.

And when Bill, Tony, Richard and the boys hang out — there is an unmistakable Ocean’s 11 vibe.

Give you just a little vignette: As Blair exits this luncheon, he greets Arianna Huffington, with a big, beaming smile and kiss. Bill Clinton, trailing behind him, looks straight ahead and does not pause for anything (that I can see).

One more thing: I have often wondered, Do Clinton and Blair ever discuss Blair’s friendship and alliance with George W. Bush? One of Bush’s last presidential acts was to hang a Medal of Freedom around Blair’s neck. When Clinton and Blair speak about Bush — if they do — I like to think that Blair is defensive of the 43rd prez.

I don’t know.

‐On the subject of British politicians: I see a youngish, well-groomed man on the street and think, “He looks familiar” — he is David Cameron, said to be Britain’s next PM.

‐As always, African dress stands out strikingly in the Swiss snow. (So do “flowing” Gulf robes.)

‐I have often had this thought at Davos: At last, “global village” is not a conceit.

‐Two names you often see in Switzerland: Widmer and Huber. You see them in the United States, too — and you can almost bet that their bearers are of Swiss origins.

‐A couple of tall evergreens here have Christmas lights, or at least white lights — they are quite a sight, when the sun goes down. (Not that Davos needs human aid in order to be beautiful.)

‐I pass a man whose nametag says Georg Kell. He is with the U.N. I of course think of George Kell, the great Tiger third baseman. My grandparents, mother, and uncle, when my mother and uncle were kids, had a cat named George Kell (and also cats named after other Tigers, I believe).

‐Want more Davos? There are Davos articles in the below-plugged book. Thanks for joining me today, and I’ll see you on Monday, for Part IV.

#JAYBOOK#