Hope you had a good weekend, dear readers. Last Wednesday, we published Part I of these Davos Impromptus (here). And last Thursday, Part II (here). And Friday, Part III. Thanks for settling into Part IV. Its two stars will be the prime minister of Egypt and the president of Pakistan.
The president of Pakistan, you know (Musharraf). Whoโs the prime minister of Egypt? His name is Ahmed Mahmoud Nazif, and heโs known as a reformer, a technocrat, a (relative) liberalโand brilliant. His Ph.D. is in computer engineering, from McGill. He may fairly be called the father of the Internet, in Egypt. And he became prime minister two years ago.
At the beginning of the Annual Meeting, I asked a well-known foreign-affairs analyst (American) whom I should seek to meet here in Davos: Who was interesting, who was unusual, who would be worth hearing? He had one suggestion: Nazif. It so happens that he meets with a small group of journalists. And that analystโs advice turns out to be spot-on.
Born in 1952, Nazif is tall, solidly built, silver-manedโurbane. He speaks a fluent and elegant English. Actually, itโs amazing how many leaders in what is still referred to as the Third World speak a fluent and elegant English.
Nazif is introduced as โHis Excellency,โ and the journalists from the Middle East refer to him as โYour Excellency.โ This strikes me as strange, in that the Egyptiansโcertainly government elitesโtend to think of themselves as democrats. โHis Excellencyโ is a strange title for a democrat. (Recall that it is one George Washington rejected at the end of the 18th century.) So, I ask Nazif about this: How did the prime minister of Egypt come to be called โHis Excellencyโ? He sort of grins and says, โWell, 50 years ago it was โpasha.โโ
He talks about the opening up of the Egyptian economy, the welcoming of investorsโand boasts of 5 percent growth in Egypt. This is, inarguably, huge in the Arab world. And Nazif is hoping for 6 percent in โ06.
He also speaks of electoral reformโโproviding Egyptian voters with real choices,โ instead of the illusion of choice. Nazif sounds like an outsider or dissenter, rather than prime minister. In the recent election, he says, something like 70 percent of the vote went to โthe ruling party.โ And โthe dissenting voteโโnote that these are his wordsโwent to โthe Islamic parties.โ Nazif wants a proliferation of properly โpolitical parties.โ
He laments that turnout in the recent election was โonly 25 percent.โ And โyou also have to look at which 25 percent: The sad thing is, most of the middle classโeducated peopleโdidnโt vote.โ That is a sign of major defects in a political system.
Totally unprompted, Nazif brings up emergency law: Egyptians, he says, should not have to live under emergency law. Even if that law provides โleverage to fight terror,โ people โdeserve to live in a non-emergency situation.โ
Speaking broadly about the Middle East, he says that men and women are โmore inclined to peaceโ when their economic circumstances are goodโwhen โthey have something to lose.โ He addresses this question of democracy and development: Which comes first? This is a chicken-and-egg game: and Nazif says that you canโt separate democracy and development, that โthey go hand in hand. You canโt have one without the other. You canโt turn one on and the other off.โ
Yes, when you make $3,000 a year, you may not want to hear much talk about democracy. You want food on the tableโโand when you go to vote, thatโs what drives you. But a free society is more capable of developmentโ (than a non-free one).
So true, and utterly refreshing from a Middle Eastern leader. Nazif reminds me somewhat of Bassam Awadallah, the Jordanian finance minister, whom I wrote about last May, in those Davos-by-the-Dead-Sea notes.
What about tourism? someone asksโtourism to Egypt. Nazif replies that such tourism depends largely on terrorist actsโif they occur, no tourists; if they donโtโa better chance of them. Again, this is refreshing candor. He doesnโt whine about some defamation of Egypt in the international press.
One of my colleagues asks how โresponsibleโ the Egyptian โpolitical systemโ is for the lack of political openness in that country. Nazifโs answer? โTotally responsible.โ He goes on to say that a one-party state is not a healthy condition, politically: โWhen one team gets all the good players, only that team wins the league championship,โ ever. โWe need a balanced system.โ He further says that civil society is gaining strength in Egypt: โThe old way of the governmentโs doing everything is going away.โ
On the question of trade, he is unequivocal: โWe are free-traders.โ It is a sure way to help all involved.
Sensitive to his background, I ask about the effect of the Internet on political reform. He says that websites in Egypt have flowered. The political parties, the activist groups, have oneโeven the Muslim Brotherhood has one. Nazif reads this site, seeking to understand the Brotherhood. You have to be wary of โpeople who hide thingsโ; better that they say what they mean, online and in other places.
And anyone can start a website in Egypt, according to Nazif: โYou donโt have to go to the government for it, you donโt have to deal with bureaucracy, you donโt have to obtain a licenseโโno, you just do it. And the Internet has experienced โphenomenal growth.โ
After the session, I buttonhole him, to try out something on him: I have heard, from at least one Egyptianโfrom others, as wellโthat U.S. aid breeds resentment. I mean, no one likes to be dependent on anyone. Hands that feed get bitten. What about that?
Nazif says that he does not agree with this. The reception of aid does not breed resentment, he says. What people resent is U.S. interference, U.S. meddling: telling other people what to do. He mentions Afghanistan and Iraq (I donโt argue with him, because this is not the time or place). Take the call for international observers of Egyptian elections: That is insulting to national pride.
Understandably.
Nonetheless, the U.S.-Egyptian-relationship is basically good, says Nazif. There are many positive aspects of itโbut the media, all over, tend to focus on the negative.
โBy the way, on the table accommodating the prime minister and several journalists from the Arab world, a big, reeking plate of ham and salami is placed. It goes untouched.
Just reporting.
โI was talking about sports figures the other day, and I left one outโMonica Seles. Sheโs here, making the rounds. Lucky for her, I donโt have my racquet, or else Iโd challenge her to a match, and run her Serbian-Hungarian behind all over the . . .
Oh, sorry, just hallucinating.
โPele? Astonishingly short guyโcomes up to about my neck. But he looks springy, litheโlike he could jump over your head, if he wanted. Even now. The way he walks across the floor, you know heโs an athlete.
โIn my years at Davos, Iโve seen President Musharraf several timesโand heโs always amazingly cheerful. Fit, self-possessed, eager. This is really remarkable, for someone who has about the hardest job in the world (and who braves many assassination attempts). I have argued before that the two hardest jobs are president of Pakistan and prime minister of Israelโbut we can talk about that later.
Like Nazif, Musharraf meets with a group of us journalists, and not long after. Will this conversation be on the record or off? Pakistanโs president saysโin his distinctive and flavorful South Asian EnglishโโIโm an upfront person. I am not a person to have secrecies and confidentialities.โ
He expresses โmy gratitude and the gratitude of my nationโ for the worldโs aid to Pakistan, following the earthquake there. About $6.5 billion in total has been given. Musharraf talks about touring the country by helicopter, immediately after the quake, โif only to give flag-showing.โ He recites a multiplicity of facts about the disaster and the efforts to recover from it. โWe must not only rebuild what was there, we must also build what should have been there in the first place.โ
He then does a little economic braggingโor, he would say, fact-citing: โWhen I took over in 1999, Pakistan was considered a failed state. We have come a long way since then. We have experienced steady and substantial growth.โ He speaks very fluently about economics, for a military man (or for just about anybody, really).
And, as Iโve noted before in Davos Impromptus, Musharrafโs English is replete with Britishismsโsome of them a little musty. The other year, he talked about โthese Qaeda chaps.โ I also like the way he uses โno, sirโโe.g., โYou think weโre just going to stand aside and do nothing? No, sir, we will act.โ I especially enjoy this bit of Islamic-world-speak: โWe inshallah will meet that challenge.โ
Musharraf asserts that โwe are in the lead role in the fight on terror.โ He says that terrorism and extremism are two different things: Terrorism, you can meet by force, and you must. Extremism is a state of mindโand you canโt fight it militarily. So how do you combat extremism, which is at the root of terrorism? How do you keep the extremist from crossing over into terrorism?
He claims that Pakistanโโand I say this proudlyโโis the only country in the world dealing with both terrorism and extremism, with an eye on both the short and the long terms. โMilitary action is not an end in itself. It only buys time for other instruments to be used in addressing the core issues.โ
The conversation then turns to Indiaโto Kashmir, in particular: โI say this with all sincerity: I am an extremely flexible man, and Iโm bold enough to go for an out-of-the-box solution.โ Sometime later, he adds: โBut you canโt clap with one hand.โ He confesses that, at this juncture, โdispute-resolution is not going well.โ
That reminds me ever so slightly of President Fordโs remarkable statement: โThe state of the Union is not good.โ
Musharraf advises, โLeadership is not permanent, and no leader is permanent. We must resolve disputes when we can. We must grasp this fleeting momentโbecause fleeting moments come and go, and it is incumbent on leaders to grasp fleeting moments. Otherwise, they are not leaders.โ
Let me provide a little Nordlinger translation (and it takes no genius to interpret so): For the time being, the Indian leadership is sane and the Pakistani leadership is sane. Who knows how long this fortunate condition will last? If knotty questions are settled nowโbetween reasonable, moderate leaders, showing mutual goodwillโthe India-Pakistan relationship will be able to weather nuttier leadership later.
Someone asks, โWhy should Pakistan and India be able to have the A-bomb, and Iran not?โ Musharraf says that the only good reason to have a nuclear weapon is to deter aggression. โWhen India went unconventional, we went unconventionalโโbecause โthe balanceโ was upset. โOurs is a threat perception; Indiaโs may be a world projection.โ So why should the mullahs be deprived of their nukes? โI donโt see a threat to Iran.โ And as a general matter, โwe are against nuclear proliferation.โ
A word about A. Q. Khan: โHe has affected very adversely the name and reputation of Pakistan.โ
A word about Israel and the PA: โWho would have thought the whole Islamic world would be praying for the recovery of Ariel Sharon?โ And, โHamas must go for an approach of reconciliation. And if it does, the United States should accept that.โ
An aphorism: โWhen elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.โ
Finally, you may especially like this: The journalists invite Musharraf to condemn the United States for its recent raid against al Qaeda, on Pakistani soil. They sort of bait him into rebuking his American allyโholy Pakistani sovereignty, and all that.
Musharraf makes clear that Pakistan did not know about the raid in advance. (Therefore, it gave no permission.) He makes clear Pakistanโs disapproval of that raid. But he wonders why no one ever mentions the violation of Pakistani sovereignty by al Qaeda and other foreigners. Yes, Pakistan doesnโt like the United States operating on its soil. But what about these legions of terrorists? The United States is helping Pakistan get rid of them. The Pakistanis have captured Sudanese, Chechens, Uzbeks, Arabs, and more.
What about them? Donโt they count? Huh, huh?
As usual, Musharraf is more pro-Westernโand more sensibleโthan Western journalists.
When it comes to the War on Terror, says Musharraf, โif Pakistan hasnโt done anything, nobody has done anything.โ Pakistan has plowed 80,000 troops into the effort, suffering 300 casualties.
And he makes this observation: Acting against terrorists is not all that difficult; gathering intelligence on them is extremely difficult.
With that, Musharraf moves on to his next appointment. There have been a few tense moments, but heโs still smilingโstill chipper, still bouncy, as though itโs a picnic to be president of Pakistan.






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